Reviewing defensive linemen is always fun, not least because you get to see quarterbacks getting dropped repeatedly. Unfortunately it's also a nightmare to right up, for the simple fact that defensive linemen can potentially fall into one of five distinct categories; 1) 4-3 defensive ends, 2) 3-4 defensive ends, 3) 4-3 defensive tackles, 4) 3-4 Nose tackles, 5) 3-4 outside linebackers.
Which category they fall into has more to do with who drafts them and what that team decides to use them for than it does where they played in college. The same issue applies to linebackers (Casey Matthews was a 3-4 inside backer who now plays in a 4-3 scheme for the Eagles) and then again at the safety position with College strong safeties occasionally finding themselves at free safety because they're deemed not big enough to play strong safety in the NFL.
For that reason as we go over the various defenders you need to be aware that just because I put a guy in a list of defensive ends doesn't necessarily mean that's where he'll play at the next level. I'm going to include in this list only players who played in college as 4-3 defensive ends. Be aware that some of these players will likely end up as 3-4 outside backers, and some might even get moved inside to tackle positions.
With the draft fast approaching I'm going to limit myself to the first 10-15 guys on my list and then come back to the rest later, possibly post draft with the way my schedule is working right now. And as usual, the order is somewhat random and not reflective of whether I believe player A is better than player B etc.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Sunday, March 25, 2012
2012 NFL Draft: Tight Ends
The title says it all, as usual. I'm only going to cover the first sort of 10-15 guys on the list I have, then come back for the rest another day. Starting with;
- Coby Fleener, Stanford: Not the best run blocking tight end. Not bad, but he gets shaken off by determined defenders a little too easily. His speed is pretty good and this is where Fleener really finds his niche. He's less of a pass catching tight end as he is just an over sized wide receiver. There's a good chance the team that eventually takes him will just treat him as such.
At 6'6 and over 240 pounds he presents a formidable match up for any defender and though his acceleration isn't blinding, he does have good speed once he builds up a head of steam. His route running is pretty polished and he has good hands, so he should make an effective pass catcher. In man to man coverage he has proven almost impossible to cover effectively with a linebacker and sometimes even with safeties.
With the recent success of guys like Rob Gronkowski in New England, don't be surprised if someone takes Fleener inside those first 32 picks. He should succeed at the next level.
- Coby Fleener, Stanford: Not the best run blocking tight end. Not bad, but he gets shaken off by determined defenders a little too easily. His speed is pretty good and this is where Fleener really finds his niche. He's less of a pass catching tight end as he is just an over sized wide receiver. There's a good chance the team that eventually takes him will just treat him as such.
At 6'6 and over 240 pounds he presents a formidable match up for any defender and though his acceleration isn't blinding, he does have good speed once he builds up a head of steam. His route running is pretty polished and he has good hands, so he should make an effective pass catcher. In man to man coverage he has proven almost impossible to cover effectively with a linebacker and sometimes even with safeties.
With the recent success of guys like Rob Gronkowski in New England, don't be surprised if someone takes Fleener inside those first 32 picks. He should succeed at the next level.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
2012 NFL Draft: Wide Receivers
What it says on the tin. As always, the order is semi-random and not necessarily representative of who I think the best receivers are.
- Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State: Ok, so this might be representative. I said the other day in my quarterbacks post that I was going to talk highly of Blackmon and such is the case here.
For me personally Blackmon is the most complete receiver entering the draft this year. He has the size, the speed, the strength, the jumping ability, the safe hands, the timing, the route running and the run after the catch ability to start in the NFL and go on to become a top receiver in time. If it were me then I'd be happier taking Blackmon than I would Andrew Luck.
I just can't see this pick going too far wrong. He's too good for that. With the right coaching Blackmon has the raw talent to go on and have a career comparable to guys like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Easily top of his class
- Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State: Ok, so this might be representative. I said the other day in my quarterbacks post that I was going to talk highly of Blackmon and such is the case here.
For me personally Blackmon is the most complete receiver entering the draft this year. He has the size, the speed, the strength, the jumping ability, the safe hands, the timing, the route running and the run after the catch ability to start in the NFL and go on to become a top receiver in time. If it were me then I'd be happier taking Blackmon than I would Andrew Luck.
I just can't see this pick going too far wrong. He's too good for that. With the right coaching Blackmon has the raw talent to go on and have a career comparable to guys like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Easily top of his class
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Tebow, Sapp, Porter, and a wave of media bile.
So all this is coming off the back of the news that Peyton Manning is currently finalising a deal with the Denver Broncos, reported to be in the region of $95 million for 5 years. That's $19 million per year, or as we say in my neck of the woods, "what f**king mug agreed to give him that?".
Anyway, the result of this deal is that in all likely hood, Tim Tebow will be traded. There's talk about 5th round picks, maybe more, maybe less. Whatever it is, pretty much every media outlet has panned the idea that any team would be stupid enough to do so. They all claim it's a waste of a pick and the usual bandwagon bullshit about how Tebow will never win games as a starter in the NFL, joking about him moving to tight end etc.
The NFL Networks response was to ask Warren Sapp and Joey Porter what they thought if Tebow was brought onto a team that they were playing on. Porter responded by saying that he would want to know who "was to blame" for bringing Tebow to his team and that he would take the signing as an indication that his team wanted to lose all season to get a high draft pick next year. Sapp exclaimed that he would "want out", and that team mates of Tebow would have to get used to not being frustrated by pick sixes and being down by 24 points every game.
This, this right here, is one of the multitude of reasons that I've lost any interest what so ever in the NFL Network over the years. What a pile of ignorant horse shit.
Now I don't care if you like Tebow or if you don't, here's the indisputable truth. Last year the Broncos were 1-4 to start the season with Kyle "a pure pocket passer" Orton at the helm. Tebow comes in and the Broncos win 7 of their next 8 games, including a six game winning streak, before struggling in the final three games. As a result of this turn around, the Broncos made the playoffs.
This is why I couldn't help but laugh at Porter. Playing for a pick? What a late rounder? I suppose the Broncos didn't win those games no? And then Sapp's comments about pick sixes? Last year Tebow threw 6 interceptions against 12 touchdowns (Orton threw eight TD's and seven INT's in 5 games). He also ran in another 6. There are some quarterbacks in the NFL right now who can't even achieve a positive TD to INT ratio. It's one of the many oddities that people seem to over look when bashing Tebow as a passer.
By the way, did I mention the Broncos beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in a play off game? Thanks to a Tim Tebow pass? No? Oh well, there was that too.
Look, by no means do I consider Tebow to be an elite pocket passer, but a simple study of the film and in particular paying attention to the amount of dropped passes should tell the average fan that much of the crap you hear from the press is just that, crap.
With some better pass catchers and an offense that isn't afraid to actually allow him to go out and, you know, pass the ball, then I think you'll see a much better Tim Tebow. Tebow has shown, repeatedly, that he can throw passes accurately to receivers when given the opportunity. Whether they catch them or not is entirely down to them.
We also have to be wary of the numbers game here. The average accuracy rating for a good quarterback in the NFL is 60%. In one game Tebow threw 20 passes and completed 9. If he hits just three more passes in that game, hardly a massive leap in terms of on field production, then he achieves the holy 60% mark that everyone is so fixated by.
With the limited offense that he worked with in Denver, the difference between being deemed a success or failure in the eyes of the media was literally that thin. If the Broncos receivers weren't so bloody butter fingered, the Broncos might have won more games and Kyle Orton might not even have lost his job.
All I can say in the end is good luck to Peyton Manning. In exchange for the $19 million a year salary that you'll be receiving you have inherited; possibly one of the worst pass blocking O-lines in the NFL, a group of receivers that need a lot of work, a pretty good running game... that you wont use properly because you never do, and a defense that is very strong and will likely decide the fate of the Broncos in 2012.
Tuck in.
To Tim Tebow I say this; keep your chin up, work hard in the off season to improve yourself, find a bunch of young receivers who have no problem spending all day practicing with you, and then stick it to people like Sapp, Porter, Rich Eisen, Mike Florio, and all the other wider collective of dick head "analysts" on TV who have said you'll never make it.
Anyway, the result of this deal is that in all likely hood, Tim Tebow will be traded. There's talk about 5th round picks, maybe more, maybe less. Whatever it is, pretty much every media outlet has panned the idea that any team would be stupid enough to do so. They all claim it's a waste of a pick and the usual bandwagon bullshit about how Tebow will never win games as a starter in the NFL, joking about him moving to tight end etc.
The NFL Networks response was to ask Warren Sapp and Joey Porter what they thought if Tebow was brought onto a team that they were playing on. Porter responded by saying that he would want to know who "was to blame" for bringing Tebow to his team and that he would take the signing as an indication that his team wanted to lose all season to get a high draft pick next year. Sapp exclaimed that he would "want out", and that team mates of Tebow would have to get used to not being frustrated by pick sixes and being down by 24 points every game.
This, this right here, is one of the multitude of reasons that I've lost any interest what so ever in the NFL Network over the years. What a pile of ignorant horse shit.
Now I don't care if you like Tebow or if you don't, here's the indisputable truth. Last year the Broncos were 1-4 to start the season with Kyle "a pure pocket passer" Orton at the helm. Tebow comes in and the Broncos win 7 of their next 8 games, including a six game winning streak, before struggling in the final three games. As a result of this turn around, the Broncos made the playoffs.
This is why I couldn't help but laugh at Porter. Playing for a pick? What a late rounder? I suppose the Broncos didn't win those games no? And then Sapp's comments about pick sixes? Last year Tebow threw 6 interceptions against 12 touchdowns (Orton threw eight TD's and seven INT's in 5 games). He also ran in another 6. There are some quarterbacks in the NFL right now who can't even achieve a positive TD to INT ratio. It's one of the many oddities that people seem to over look when bashing Tebow as a passer.
By the way, did I mention the Broncos beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in a play off game? Thanks to a Tim Tebow pass? No? Oh well, there was that too.
Look, by no means do I consider Tebow to be an elite pocket passer, but a simple study of the film and in particular paying attention to the amount of dropped passes should tell the average fan that much of the crap you hear from the press is just that, crap.
With some better pass catchers and an offense that isn't afraid to actually allow him to go out and, you know, pass the ball, then I think you'll see a much better Tim Tebow. Tebow has shown, repeatedly, that he can throw passes accurately to receivers when given the opportunity. Whether they catch them or not is entirely down to them.
We also have to be wary of the numbers game here. The average accuracy rating for a good quarterback in the NFL is 60%. In one game Tebow threw 20 passes and completed 9. If he hits just three more passes in that game, hardly a massive leap in terms of on field production, then he achieves the holy 60% mark that everyone is so fixated by.
With the limited offense that he worked with in Denver, the difference between being deemed a success or failure in the eyes of the media was literally that thin. If the Broncos receivers weren't so bloody butter fingered, the Broncos might have won more games and Kyle Orton might not even have lost his job.
All I can say in the end is good luck to Peyton Manning. In exchange for the $19 million a year salary that you'll be receiving you have inherited; possibly one of the worst pass blocking O-lines in the NFL, a group of receivers that need a lot of work, a pretty good running game... that you wont use properly because you never do, and a defense that is very strong and will likely decide the fate of the Broncos in 2012.
Tuck in.
To Tim Tebow I say this; keep your chin up, work hard in the off season to improve yourself, find a bunch of young receivers who have no problem spending all day practicing with you, and then stick it to people like Sapp, Porter, Rich Eisen, Mike Florio, and all the other wider collective of dick head "analysts" on TV who have said you'll never make it.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
2012 NFL Free Agency
So I've taken a break from looking at the wide receiver prospects in this years draft to have a look over the start of free agency. I'll cover as much as I can about the stuff that interests me, in a some what random order. Have to say though, while generally speaking I'm not a huge fan of teams splashing the cash in free agency, this years crop has some real tantalising names on it.
Starting with quarterbacks, the big name is obviously Peyton Manning. The Titans, Dolphins, Broncos and Cardinals appear to be the four destinations topping every list and the Titans are supposedly number one in many peoples books. Certainly the opportunity to get one over the Colts might appeal to Manning, but I'm guessing money will do the eventual talking.
It's an interesting choice because either one of those four teams would have talent for Peyton to work with, though not all possessing the same kind of talent. The Dolphins and the Cardinals hold the promise of top wide receivers for Manning to throw to, while the Cardinals and the Titans both have solid running backs in place too. Unless you want to argue for Reggie Bush in Miami, which has some merit.
The Titans would probably benefit the most because it would take the pressure off of Chris Johnson to carry that team and it would be a wonderful learning experience for young Jake Locker. The Broncos would probably be the least attractive. Their receiving corps still needs a ton of work and while the defense is strong, it's just not the best home for Manning right now.
Starting with quarterbacks, the big name is obviously Peyton Manning. The Titans, Dolphins, Broncos and Cardinals appear to be the four destinations topping every list and the Titans are supposedly number one in many peoples books. Certainly the opportunity to get one over the Colts might appeal to Manning, but I'm guessing money will do the eventual talking.
It's an interesting choice because either one of those four teams would have talent for Peyton to work with, though not all possessing the same kind of talent. The Dolphins and the Cardinals hold the promise of top wide receivers for Manning to throw to, while the Cardinals and the Titans both have solid running backs in place too. Unless you want to argue for Reggie Bush in Miami, which has some merit.
The Titans would probably benefit the most because it would take the pressure off of Chris Johnson to carry that team and it would be a wonderful learning experience for young Jake Locker. The Broncos would probably be the least attractive. Their receiving corps still needs a ton of work and while the defense is strong, it's just not the best home for Manning right now.
Monday, March 12, 2012
2012 NFL Draft: Running Backs
So here's my run down of the running backs for the 2012 NFL draft. As always this may not be a complete list, but it will certainly cover most of the big names. Please note as well when reading this that running backs are notoriously difficult to judge due to the huge influence that offensive line play has on their careers, both past and future.
- Trent Richardson, Alabama: You knew he was going to be number one on the list. The question is whether Richardson lives up to that hype and deserves his spot? In my opinion, and despite the difficulties with judging running backs, I think he more than deserves his place at the top of any list of running backs for consideration in the 2012 draft.
In fact I'm going to go one further and say that there is a possible case for Richardson being considered as the number one overall pick. In light of the Redskins trade up to the second spot and coach Mike Shanahan's predilection for running backs, I wouldn't be surprised if he made the move to get Richardson. It's not as likely as the Griffin pick, but if it happens then it shouldn't come as too big of a surprise to you.
Simply put, Richardson embodies everything about what you might call an "old school" running back. He's a downhill runner, a hitter, a banger, a short powerhouse with excellent agility and great patience. It's not so much three yards and a cloud of dust as it is 8 yards and a pile of bodies.
Richardson has remarkable length strength which, coupled with his excellent balance, makes him very difficult to bring down, even when you have two or three men hanging off him. He does an excellent job of bending his knees, keeping his hips low and slowly, patiently picking his way through the holes in the defense. Any time he gets stopped he then uses that uncanny agility and occasionally a sweet looking sideways shimmy to get around defenders before turning the all ahead plough back on.
His determination just adds to this. I can't count the amount of times I've seen him get hit at two yards past the line of scrimmage, only to keep his legs churning relentlessly and use his strength to go get another two or three yards on top of that. Part of that comes from the low pad level as he ducks and dives through the line, hitting tacklers with his shoulder the way a good running back should.
All of this happens with the ball tucked high and tight in the perfect position for ball security. He truly is a wonder to watch as he picks apart a defense. Throw in a solid commitment to pass blocking and sufficiently good hands and you have yourself a near complete, 3 down running back.
If there was any one knock on him then it would be that his speed in the open field isn't "elite" level, but that's not really the kind of back that Richardson is. He's not so much a game breaking, home run hitter, as he is a short range, consistent back. He's the kind of player who will drive you forward 5-8 yards on first down, then come back and do it all again on second down.
Consistency is the name of the game with Richardson and consistency is certainly what you get. Consistently going forward, consistently weaving in and out of defenders, consistently keeping the chains moving. He's a pounding, morale destroying back who grinds opponents into the ground with every run and pushes his team ever closer to victory.
I really can't speak highly enough of Richardson. I can't see him getting out of the top five, let alone out of the top ten. It's very rare (re; never) that I advocate running backs as first round picks because of the influence of the O-line and because quality backs are normally available as low down as the fourth or fifth round sometimes. But I'll make the exception for Richardson because I believe he is genuinely an exceptional player. Could lead the league in yards his rookie year.
- Trent Richardson, Alabama: You knew he was going to be number one on the list. The question is whether Richardson lives up to that hype and deserves his spot? In my opinion, and despite the difficulties with judging running backs, I think he more than deserves his place at the top of any list of running backs for consideration in the 2012 draft.
In fact I'm going to go one further and say that there is a possible case for Richardson being considered as the number one overall pick. In light of the Redskins trade up to the second spot and coach Mike Shanahan's predilection for running backs, I wouldn't be surprised if he made the move to get Richardson. It's not as likely as the Griffin pick, but if it happens then it shouldn't come as too big of a surprise to you.
Simply put, Richardson embodies everything about what you might call an "old school" running back. He's a downhill runner, a hitter, a banger, a short powerhouse with excellent agility and great patience. It's not so much three yards and a cloud of dust as it is 8 yards and a pile of bodies.
Richardson has remarkable length strength which, coupled with his excellent balance, makes him very difficult to bring down, even when you have two or three men hanging off him. He does an excellent job of bending his knees, keeping his hips low and slowly, patiently picking his way through the holes in the defense. Any time he gets stopped he then uses that uncanny agility and occasionally a sweet looking sideways shimmy to get around defenders before turning the all ahead plough back on.
His determination just adds to this. I can't count the amount of times I've seen him get hit at two yards past the line of scrimmage, only to keep his legs churning relentlessly and use his strength to go get another two or three yards on top of that. Part of that comes from the low pad level as he ducks and dives through the line, hitting tacklers with his shoulder the way a good running back should.
All of this happens with the ball tucked high and tight in the perfect position for ball security. He truly is a wonder to watch as he picks apart a defense. Throw in a solid commitment to pass blocking and sufficiently good hands and you have yourself a near complete, 3 down running back.
If there was any one knock on him then it would be that his speed in the open field isn't "elite" level, but that's not really the kind of back that Richardson is. He's not so much a game breaking, home run hitter, as he is a short range, consistent back. He's the kind of player who will drive you forward 5-8 yards on first down, then come back and do it all again on second down.
Consistency is the name of the game with Richardson and consistency is certainly what you get. Consistently going forward, consistently weaving in and out of defenders, consistently keeping the chains moving. He's a pounding, morale destroying back who grinds opponents into the ground with every run and pushes his team ever closer to victory.
I really can't speak highly enough of Richardson. I can't see him getting out of the top five, let alone out of the top ten. It's very rare (re; never) that I advocate running backs as first round picks because of the influence of the O-line and because quality backs are normally available as low down as the fourth or fifth round sometimes. But I'll make the exception for Richardson because I believe he is genuinely an exceptional player. Could lead the league in yards his rookie year.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
2012 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks
Before we begin this round up, it's important to note once again that this is just my initial impressions based on what I've seen so far. I'll probably come back for a second look in depth at some of the more prominent individuals at a later date. If you're wondering why this is taking so much longer than last year, it's because my work schedule this year is so much more hectic, which is pressing the demands on time. As a result I may, with regard to the remaining groups, focus more on the high end prospects.
- Andrew Luck, Stanford: Before I even begin to talk about Luck, we need to caveat this whole speech. See, the very reason that I started this blog is because I was sick and tired of listening to some of the bile and hyperbole that gets thrown around the Internet and on TV by certain pundits, professional writers, bloggers, and analysts.
Enter Andrew Luck. Luck is by no means a bad quarterback, that much should be obvious to everybody. But by the same token, Luck is being given far too much credit. Many fans will already be familiar with this and thankfully a lot of people realise that Luck is perhaps being built up in the media a little beyond what he's actually capable of.
I'm not sure though if fans realise just to what extent that is the case. I watched one play for example against USC and compared it to the ESPN broadcast, where the commentator went on a loving monologue about how Luck was victimising this defender and intentionally doing this and that etc, when really he looked more like he was just going through his standard reads. Like normal.
This happens all the time in football. Everytime Peyton Manning steps up and calls something out to his line, he's tagged as having changed the play. How do you know that? Manning, like all quarterbacks, has to occasionally use fake audibles (fake calls) in order to keep the defense guessing. He's not always changing the play everytime he speaks, but commentators blindly credit him as doing so on every occasion.
Luck has the same problem, or rather, the same benefit. He's constantly being credited for things that a logical study of the game would suggest he's not actually doing. This goes back to an article I wrote a while back about how quarterbacks are always given credit for "dropping the ball into the receivers lap" on deep passes, when anyone with a modicum of understanding as to how these things actually work in reality knows that quarterbacks tend to just drop the ball in the approximate location of the receiver (within a few feet) and the receiver usually makes the final adjustment to secure the catch.
On that note, I have to say that I think Luck is over rated. It's hard for me to say something like that because I do think Luck is a very talented quarterback and his future in the NFL looks reasonably promising given the right situation and the right coaching.
He does have - shock, horror - some weaknesses though. The two primary ones that I've seen have been 1) that he's very much a short passing quarterback and 2) that he often makes some very poor decisions under pressure.
Addressing number one first, this was a big knock that I had on Blaine Gabbert (among many knocks) from last year. Luck has a good completion percentage largely because he routinely dumps the ball off to underneath receivers and is very disinclined to push the ball downfield. When he does attempt passes of over 10 yards, his accuracy is highly questionable (as in, very inconsistent).
That's not a bad thing in and of itself. Montana and Young made careers with the 49ers out of protecting the ball, finding the open receiver and letting receivers rack up the yards after the catch. Tom Brady has been doing it that way for the last few seasons. The trouble is that approach a) is very dependent on the quality of the receivers and, b) is a method that sometimes struggles when playing from behind.
Addressing point two, under pressure Luck has a tendency to just flick the ball out in an almost blase (I don't have one of those fancy e's with thing on it), shovel pass manner and sometimes throw bad passes up for grabs into dangerous spots. Rather than just eat the sack or throw the ball out of bounds he tries to make a play happen where there clearly isn't one, and if not punished for it, then often comes very close to being.
That combination - for me at least - throws up some serious questions that need answering. Can Luck carry a team single handed, without a sterling receiver corps? Can he put up enough yards on a team that has a poor running game? If he's drafted by a coach who wants to push the ball downfield (it's almost certainly going to be the Colts), can he get by without giving up too many takeaways? How will he cope under the relentless pressure of an NFL pass rush? When you consider that last year he got somewhat rattled by all the media attention surrounding him, how will he cope with being a first round pick and the "face of a franchise"?
Working in Lucks favour are a number of positive attributes. He does have a surprising turn of speed with his feet. His footwork when dropping back and moving in the pocket is excellent. Mentally he avoids pressure and works around the pocket very well. His conservative style means he doesn't turn the ball over much. His vision downfield is pretty good. I noticed he can throw the ball from any position in his hand, that is to say that he doesn't need the laces under his fingers like many quarterbacks. He's pretty accurate over short distances and he's known for being hard working.
All of these things present a coach with a very useful, very flexible player to work with who can probably start week one with the right offense in place. His prospects for technical development are - in my estimation - slightly above average for quarterbacks coming into the league. But the decision making under pressure and conservative style are nagging issues.
I think in order to succeed Luck will need a coach who understands his limitations and builds the offense around him. Someone like a Mike Martz is probably no use to Luck. He needs a slightly less ambitious offense that gives him good protection, plenty of options and is built to attack the opponent piece by piece, play by play, in a slower, more methodical fashion, with some nippy slot receivers.
So do I think Luck will make it big in the NFL? As always with young prospects, it's very hard to tell. He has a lot of raw tools in his favour to work with, however I just can't see him matching up to the hype that has been surrounding him for this last year. People expecting Luck to be the second coming of Peyton Manning are in for a sharp shock.
I'd place him more in the bracket with guys like Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler, in that I think with all the right set up then he could be successful, but he's not the kind of quarterback who is going to bring everyone else up to his level and he's not going to win games single handedly. His first season will tell us an awful lot about him, much of it quite surprising to many I'm sure.
Of course with the media the way it is, expect the pendulum of hype to swing wildly from "Golden Boy" to "Bust", which after just one season will absolutely be just as undeserved.
- Andrew Luck, Stanford: Before I even begin to talk about Luck, we need to caveat this whole speech. See, the very reason that I started this blog is because I was sick and tired of listening to some of the bile and hyperbole that gets thrown around the Internet and on TV by certain pundits, professional writers, bloggers, and analysts.
Enter Andrew Luck. Luck is by no means a bad quarterback, that much should be obvious to everybody. But by the same token, Luck is being given far too much credit. Many fans will already be familiar with this and thankfully a lot of people realise that Luck is perhaps being built up in the media a little beyond what he's actually capable of.
I'm not sure though if fans realise just to what extent that is the case. I watched one play for example against USC and compared it to the ESPN broadcast, where the commentator went on a loving monologue about how Luck was victimising this defender and intentionally doing this and that etc, when really he looked more like he was just going through his standard reads. Like normal.
This happens all the time in football. Everytime Peyton Manning steps up and calls something out to his line, he's tagged as having changed the play. How do you know that? Manning, like all quarterbacks, has to occasionally use fake audibles (fake calls) in order to keep the defense guessing. He's not always changing the play everytime he speaks, but commentators blindly credit him as doing so on every occasion.
Luck has the same problem, or rather, the same benefit. He's constantly being credited for things that a logical study of the game would suggest he's not actually doing. This goes back to an article I wrote a while back about how quarterbacks are always given credit for "dropping the ball into the receivers lap" on deep passes, when anyone with a modicum of understanding as to how these things actually work in reality knows that quarterbacks tend to just drop the ball in the approximate location of the receiver (within a few feet) and the receiver usually makes the final adjustment to secure the catch.
On that note, I have to say that I think Luck is over rated. It's hard for me to say something like that because I do think Luck is a very talented quarterback and his future in the NFL looks reasonably promising given the right situation and the right coaching.
He does have - shock, horror - some weaknesses though. The two primary ones that I've seen have been 1) that he's very much a short passing quarterback and 2) that he often makes some very poor decisions under pressure.
Addressing number one first, this was a big knock that I had on Blaine Gabbert (among many knocks) from last year. Luck has a good completion percentage largely because he routinely dumps the ball off to underneath receivers and is very disinclined to push the ball downfield. When he does attempt passes of over 10 yards, his accuracy is highly questionable (as in, very inconsistent).
That's not a bad thing in and of itself. Montana and Young made careers with the 49ers out of protecting the ball, finding the open receiver and letting receivers rack up the yards after the catch. Tom Brady has been doing it that way for the last few seasons. The trouble is that approach a) is very dependent on the quality of the receivers and, b) is a method that sometimes struggles when playing from behind.
Addressing point two, under pressure Luck has a tendency to just flick the ball out in an almost blase (I don't have one of those fancy e's with thing on it), shovel pass manner and sometimes throw bad passes up for grabs into dangerous spots. Rather than just eat the sack or throw the ball out of bounds he tries to make a play happen where there clearly isn't one, and if not punished for it, then often comes very close to being.
That combination - for me at least - throws up some serious questions that need answering. Can Luck carry a team single handed, without a sterling receiver corps? Can he put up enough yards on a team that has a poor running game? If he's drafted by a coach who wants to push the ball downfield (it's almost certainly going to be the Colts), can he get by without giving up too many takeaways? How will he cope under the relentless pressure of an NFL pass rush? When you consider that last year he got somewhat rattled by all the media attention surrounding him, how will he cope with being a first round pick and the "face of a franchise"?
Working in Lucks favour are a number of positive attributes. He does have a surprising turn of speed with his feet. His footwork when dropping back and moving in the pocket is excellent. Mentally he avoids pressure and works around the pocket very well. His conservative style means he doesn't turn the ball over much. His vision downfield is pretty good. I noticed he can throw the ball from any position in his hand, that is to say that he doesn't need the laces under his fingers like many quarterbacks. He's pretty accurate over short distances and he's known for being hard working.
All of these things present a coach with a very useful, very flexible player to work with who can probably start week one with the right offense in place. His prospects for technical development are - in my estimation - slightly above average for quarterbacks coming into the league. But the decision making under pressure and conservative style are nagging issues.
I think in order to succeed Luck will need a coach who understands his limitations and builds the offense around him. Someone like a Mike Martz is probably no use to Luck. He needs a slightly less ambitious offense that gives him good protection, plenty of options and is built to attack the opponent piece by piece, play by play, in a slower, more methodical fashion, with some nippy slot receivers.
So do I think Luck will make it big in the NFL? As always with young prospects, it's very hard to tell. He has a lot of raw tools in his favour to work with, however I just can't see him matching up to the hype that has been surrounding him for this last year. People expecting Luck to be the second coming of Peyton Manning are in for a sharp shock.
I'd place him more in the bracket with guys like Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler, in that I think with all the right set up then he could be successful, but he's not the kind of quarterback who is going to bring everyone else up to his level and he's not going to win games single handedly. His first season will tell us an awful lot about him, much of it quite surprising to many I'm sure.
Of course with the media the way it is, expect the pendulum of hype to swing wildly from "Golden Boy" to "Bust", which after just one season will absolutely be just as undeserved.
Thursday, March 08, 2012
Update: 03/08/12
I'm about halfway-ish, maybe just a little past that into my post about Quarterbacks for the 2012 draft. Some people are not going to like it, I can see that coming already. Tough.
Saturday, March 03, 2012
2012 Draft Prospects: Offensive Line
So here's what I think so far of the 2012 O-line draft prospects. Remember that this is not a complete list by any means and it's really just my initial thoughts based on what I've seen so far. There's nearly two months till the draft itself so there's time for things to change. In no particular order then;
- Matt Kalil, Tackle, USC: This is a name that everyone will recognise because it's a name that the majority of people expect to be called in the first hour of the 2012 draft. Now when watching offensive tackles I like to put myself in the position of the teams Head Coach and imagine that it's my quarterback out there being protected. On that note... Kalil scares the s**t out of me. I have no idea where the top 5 ranking has come from. I've seen some good games from Kalil in the past, but reviewing 2011 there is a lot there to be worried about.
Run blocking he's pretty much fine, that's not a problem. But Kalil is expected to be a left tackle, a key pass protector, and at this point he begins to struggle. People point to his statistics but in all such cases I point to the tape. And what I see is a quarterback who gets the ball out of his hands quickly, because if he didn't he'd get killed on a routine basis. Against NFL quality pass rushers I think Kalil is going to struggle badly.
He really suffers against technique rushers and just about survives with speed rushers. When faced with stunts and twists or creative blitzes, he just has no awareness and seems to only make the block when people run into him. I think being at USC has done wonders for his draft stock, but the NFL I think is going to cause him serious, serious problems. Good luck Vikings fans, you're in for a long season if the draft goes down like many think it will.
- Riley Reiff, Tackle, Iowa: God this is shaping up to be a bad year for Offensive Tackles. I have much the same issues with Reiff as Kalil. His run blocking is generally very good, but his pass protection is somewhat suspect. In college teams tend to be throwing a lot of wide receiver screens and quicker passes these days, which means that a lot of these tackles are being shielded by their quarterbacks quick release.
Reiff was sometimes solid, sometimes all over the place. Like Kalil he would often survive the first contact with the defender, only to crumble at the second bite. That's just not acceptable at the NFL level. Against stronger, faster, more determined and competitive athletes who have much better technique, that's the kind of play that will get your quarterback killed in a hurry. I'm not buying either Reiff or Kalil right now.
- Jonathan Martin, Tackle, Stanford: Now we're talking! Behind every great man is a great woman, apparently. And behind every great quarterback is a great left tackle, almost guaranteed. The connection then between Andrew Luck and Jonathan Martin should be obvious. If not, then suffice to say that Luck owes Martin a drink, or maybe even a few, or maybe even a new car, if Luck gets drafted number one overall.
The reason for that is because Martin has done an excellent job keeping Luck upright. The problem with highly rated quarterbacks is that they often get too much credit for what is fundamentally a team performance in a highly team orientated game. Martin is not considered a top 5 pick like Luck or Matt Kalil, yet in my estimation he's much better than Kalil.
He's more athletic with his footwork, tougher, has better technique and is seems more accustomed and comfortable with the kind of pass rush that he's going to see in the NFL, e.g. dealing with a relentless assault from physically gifted athletes. Martin may not get the credit that Luck does, but hopefully he'll get himself a decent pick and contract, because I think he deserves it and is going to make some team very happy with their selection.
- Mike Adams, Tackle, Ohio State: In order to understand Mike Adams as a prospect we have to consider how the NFL studies young offensive tackles. The reason for this is because Adams isn't the most technical of tackles, with occasionally suspect footwork and use of the hands. But what Adams does have, and have in abundance I might add, is athletic ability.
The general consensus among NFL scouts and personnel staff has always been that you can take a young, athletically gifted individual and then mold them into pretty much whatever you want. They bring their size, speed, strength, balance, agility etc, and then you teach them the key skills and techniques they need to succeed.
Such players also have a huge plus side, especially given their age and inexperience at the NFL level, in that a physically gifted athlete can mask technique deficiencies with his athletic skills. A quick footed player can recover from errors much easier using speed to stay with an opponent or break away from one. A strong man can use raw power to overcome sub-standard blocking technique.
Finally, an athletic individual gives the coaches more options in terms of what they can ask their player to do. Whether it's pulling on a trap or power run play, getting out onto a linebacker on a zone run, getting out in front of a running back on a screen, or just taking on a tough one on one block, athletic players give their coaches choices as to how to deal with various problems.
On that note (perhaps a slightly too long winded one) we come to Mike Adams. He is a talent, that is beyond doubt. He suffers sometimes from keeping his hands too close together when punching and driving, and will occasionally over extended himself to make a block, but Adams definitely puts the "athlete" into "student athlete".
He has quick feet, he's pretty strong and he comes out of his stance like a bullet. He seems pretty football smart and aware of things like when to pass off a block against defensive stunts and twists. When run blocking he shows a great ability to get up to the second level quickly when needed, or keep holes open against defensive linemen. Pass blocking is where his technique sometimes comes up short, but again his physical attributes mean he often recovers with ease.
I really like Adams and this is coming from someone who is a whore for technique. It's just that in recent years I've come to see the merits of the point of view regarding athletically gifted players and I think Adams is one of those. Whoever snags Adams has basically got a ready to go tackle who just needs to be guided and developed. I'd be happy to use a top 10 on him I think.
- Zebrie Sanders, Tackle, Florida State: Mmmm... not impressed. At all really. If you just want someone to cut block 60 times per game then fine, but Sanders seemed to spend a lot of time not blocking anyone or floundering around like a beached fish when he did try and block. Against some smaller rushers he had some success and maybe I'm being a bit too hard on him, but in my opinion he's never getting to amount to much and would just be a wasted pick.
- Bobby Massie, Tackle, Ole Miss: Difficult to judge is Mr. Massie. On the one hand he did his job on a fairly regular and consistent basis, e.g. keep the pass rusher he was responsible for away from the Quarterback. But I couldn't shake the feeling watching him that he'd struggle against NFL caliber athletes. Any time that Massie faced a pass rusher with a move or two then it was lights out and Massie was beaten. Gets pushed around a little too easily as well.
- Mitchell Schwartz, Tackle, California: I thought Schwartz was pretty good. He kept himself low and well balanced for the most part and seemed to have a tremendous punch on him, which is something that's not obvious from his relatively low bench press at the combine. On the field though, he seems to have few problems standing people up with some nasty looking shots.
He may not be the quickest footed guy either, but he always seems to be in the right spot, even when handling rushers coming from very wide spots. He's faced and overcome some tough opponents this year and frankly I don't think he's getting the credit he deserves. Projected to go no earlier than the 5th and may even go undrafted, I think Schwartz has potential as a good right tackle, especially at the right price.
- Nate Potter, Tackle, Boise State: Potter is a hard man to judge based on the kind of teams that Boise has played. This is one of the reasons that guys from the SEC tend to dominate the draft, especially in the early stages, because coaches and scouts are more confident that the talent level in that conference approximates the kind of talent that players will face in the NFL.
The problem with Potter is simple. He's very inconsistent. That's a problem when we're talking about someone charged with protecting the quarterback from harm. His run blocking is not too bad, but pass blocking seems to be a struggle at times. I just think that if I was a personnel guy, I couldn't trust him enough to be anything more than a pure backup.
- Levy Adcock, Tackle, Oklahoma State: Whoever taught him that god awful awkward stance he used in 2010 and spent most of 2011 recovering from should be ashamed. In general Adcock is really not worth much. He struggles against any form of prolonged pass rush, his run blocking is only adequate and his awareness - especially when facing multiple edge rushers - is horrendous. Wasted pick in my opinion.
- Senio Kelemete, Tackle, Washington: Throw away pick if you ask me, which you kind of are by reading this. Kelemete is like a lot of college tackles that come into the NFL. It's not that he's bad, he's ok, but ok doesn't cut it at this level. Ok is going to give up two or more sacks per game and that's going to get you replaced very quickly. I'd rather carry on with another ok tackle and use the pick for someone that can make a difference.
- Mike Webster, Center, Ohio State: I actually quite like Webster. He's good against the run, getting great angles against the D-linemen and working his hips into the hole to keep the running lanes clear. He routinely takes on defensive tackles and wins, while demonstrating good technique. His pass drop is quite deep and rapid, which means he's pretty handy at picking up stunts and twists, but in the NFL he'll probably have to slow that down a little so as not to run himself back into the quarterback. Making that change could give him problems, but overall I think he's a good prospect that doesn't get that much attention.
- David DeCastro, Guard, Stanford: Impressive. Like a lot of offensive linemen from Stanford, DeCastro's running technique is very good. He takes good angles and sets his hips very well, with a solid blocking stance and pretty good strength. Sometimes he struggles a little twists and stunts but it's not a deal breaker. Can't really go wrong with DeCastro.
- Cordy Glenn, Tackle/Guard, Georgia: Slow and clumsy. That's basically Glenn in a nutshell. How about we add flag magnet to that list as well? Wouldn't even use my worst enemies pick on him, it just wouldn't be fair.
- Kevin Zeitler, Guard, Wisconsin: Good and bad from Zeitler. He's pretty strong in general and excels as a pulling guard on run plays. In pass protection Zeitler has been solid. But.... he does have a tendency to get overmatched against larger defensive tackles. I wonder how well he'd cope with someone like an Ndamukong Suh, Casey Hampton or Haloti Ngata at the next level?
- Peter Konz, Center, Wisconsin: Not bad, but not sure if I'd rate him the number one overall center as many have. Konz is pretty steady in run blocking, but sometimes has a tendency to overrun defenders when moving up to the second level. I'm not sure whether he just mentally has difficulty picking out his assignment or whether it's an agility thing. Pass protection is mostly sound, with pretty good leverage achieved on most plays. Perhaps outside of round one then Konz is worth a look.
- Ben Jones, Center, Georgia: Hit and miss. Sometimes his pass blocking can be really good when he gets his hips low and his hands under the defenders pads. The problem is that at times it seems like he needs the defender to run into him in order for him to pick the guy up. Against twists, stunts and blitzes he really can struggle to find his man and get his hands on him. Probably not NFL caliber.
- Philip Blake, Center, Baylor: Blake is an interesting prospect but a little difficult to judge. His play has been an excellent but the problem is that there are a number of mitigating factors that simply cannot be ignored. The first is that defenses often played Baylor with relatively wide splits in their defensive line and rarely with a man over the center. Thus Blake spent much of his career effectively down blocking.
The second problem is that Baylor played a very wide spread offense and most teams seemed not all that keen to blitz them, especially not up the middle. The product of that is that Blake really doesn't have a lot of experience handling complicated defensive attacks on the O-line, something he'll most definitely see at the next level.
Technique wise he's fine, but there are a lot of ifs and buts to be filled in. I think this situation lends itself to one where Blake would be drafted in the later rounds and used as developmental prospect, possibly at Guard as he has pretty good mobility. But honestly I think he's a bit of a gamble to draft. Undrafted, wouldn't have a problem with him at all.
- Grant Garner, Center, Oklahoma State: Like Blake, Garner is difficult to assess given the offense that he comes from. Generally speaking Garner shows some good technique but has difficulty man handling the bigger defenders, and though his hands are quite active and he seems to move his feet well, he'd need a lot of work in the gym to make it in the NFL, providing he could handle the step up in technique in the first place.
Next up will be everyones favourite, the Quarterbacks.
- Matt Kalil, Tackle, USC: This is a name that everyone will recognise because it's a name that the majority of people expect to be called in the first hour of the 2012 draft. Now when watching offensive tackles I like to put myself in the position of the teams Head Coach and imagine that it's my quarterback out there being protected. On that note... Kalil scares the s**t out of me. I have no idea where the top 5 ranking has come from. I've seen some good games from Kalil in the past, but reviewing 2011 there is a lot there to be worried about.
Run blocking he's pretty much fine, that's not a problem. But Kalil is expected to be a left tackle, a key pass protector, and at this point he begins to struggle. People point to his statistics but in all such cases I point to the tape. And what I see is a quarterback who gets the ball out of his hands quickly, because if he didn't he'd get killed on a routine basis. Against NFL quality pass rushers I think Kalil is going to struggle badly.
He really suffers against technique rushers and just about survives with speed rushers. When faced with stunts and twists or creative blitzes, he just has no awareness and seems to only make the block when people run into him. I think being at USC has done wonders for his draft stock, but the NFL I think is going to cause him serious, serious problems. Good luck Vikings fans, you're in for a long season if the draft goes down like many think it will.
- Riley Reiff, Tackle, Iowa: God this is shaping up to be a bad year for Offensive Tackles. I have much the same issues with Reiff as Kalil. His run blocking is generally very good, but his pass protection is somewhat suspect. In college teams tend to be throwing a lot of wide receiver screens and quicker passes these days, which means that a lot of these tackles are being shielded by their quarterbacks quick release.
Reiff was sometimes solid, sometimes all over the place. Like Kalil he would often survive the first contact with the defender, only to crumble at the second bite. That's just not acceptable at the NFL level. Against stronger, faster, more determined and competitive athletes who have much better technique, that's the kind of play that will get your quarterback killed in a hurry. I'm not buying either Reiff or Kalil right now.
- Jonathan Martin, Tackle, Stanford: Now we're talking! Behind every great man is a great woman, apparently. And behind every great quarterback is a great left tackle, almost guaranteed. The connection then between Andrew Luck and Jonathan Martin should be obvious. If not, then suffice to say that Luck owes Martin a drink, or maybe even a few, or maybe even a new car, if Luck gets drafted number one overall.
The reason for that is because Martin has done an excellent job keeping Luck upright. The problem with highly rated quarterbacks is that they often get too much credit for what is fundamentally a team performance in a highly team orientated game. Martin is not considered a top 5 pick like Luck or Matt Kalil, yet in my estimation he's much better than Kalil.
He's more athletic with his footwork, tougher, has better technique and is seems more accustomed and comfortable with the kind of pass rush that he's going to see in the NFL, e.g. dealing with a relentless assault from physically gifted athletes. Martin may not get the credit that Luck does, but hopefully he'll get himself a decent pick and contract, because I think he deserves it and is going to make some team very happy with their selection.
- Mike Adams, Tackle, Ohio State: In order to understand Mike Adams as a prospect we have to consider how the NFL studies young offensive tackles. The reason for this is because Adams isn't the most technical of tackles, with occasionally suspect footwork and use of the hands. But what Adams does have, and have in abundance I might add, is athletic ability.
The general consensus among NFL scouts and personnel staff has always been that you can take a young, athletically gifted individual and then mold them into pretty much whatever you want. They bring their size, speed, strength, balance, agility etc, and then you teach them the key skills and techniques they need to succeed.
Such players also have a huge plus side, especially given their age and inexperience at the NFL level, in that a physically gifted athlete can mask technique deficiencies with his athletic skills. A quick footed player can recover from errors much easier using speed to stay with an opponent or break away from one. A strong man can use raw power to overcome sub-standard blocking technique.
Finally, an athletic individual gives the coaches more options in terms of what they can ask their player to do. Whether it's pulling on a trap or power run play, getting out onto a linebacker on a zone run, getting out in front of a running back on a screen, or just taking on a tough one on one block, athletic players give their coaches choices as to how to deal with various problems.
On that note (perhaps a slightly too long winded one) we come to Mike Adams. He is a talent, that is beyond doubt. He suffers sometimes from keeping his hands too close together when punching and driving, and will occasionally over extended himself to make a block, but Adams definitely puts the "athlete" into "student athlete".
He has quick feet, he's pretty strong and he comes out of his stance like a bullet. He seems pretty football smart and aware of things like when to pass off a block against defensive stunts and twists. When run blocking he shows a great ability to get up to the second level quickly when needed, or keep holes open against defensive linemen. Pass blocking is where his technique sometimes comes up short, but again his physical attributes mean he often recovers with ease.
I really like Adams and this is coming from someone who is a whore for technique. It's just that in recent years I've come to see the merits of the point of view regarding athletically gifted players and I think Adams is one of those. Whoever snags Adams has basically got a ready to go tackle who just needs to be guided and developed. I'd be happy to use a top 10 on him I think.
- Zebrie Sanders, Tackle, Florida State: Mmmm... not impressed. At all really. If you just want someone to cut block 60 times per game then fine, but Sanders seemed to spend a lot of time not blocking anyone or floundering around like a beached fish when he did try and block. Against some smaller rushers he had some success and maybe I'm being a bit too hard on him, but in my opinion he's never getting to amount to much and would just be a wasted pick.
- Bobby Massie, Tackle, Ole Miss: Difficult to judge is Mr. Massie. On the one hand he did his job on a fairly regular and consistent basis, e.g. keep the pass rusher he was responsible for away from the Quarterback. But I couldn't shake the feeling watching him that he'd struggle against NFL caliber athletes. Any time that Massie faced a pass rusher with a move or two then it was lights out and Massie was beaten. Gets pushed around a little too easily as well.
- Mitchell Schwartz, Tackle, California: I thought Schwartz was pretty good. He kept himself low and well balanced for the most part and seemed to have a tremendous punch on him, which is something that's not obvious from his relatively low bench press at the combine. On the field though, he seems to have few problems standing people up with some nasty looking shots.
He may not be the quickest footed guy either, but he always seems to be in the right spot, even when handling rushers coming from very wide spots. He's faced and overcome some tough opponents this year and frankly I don't think he's getting the credit he deserves. Projected to go no earlier than the 5th and may even go undrafted, I think Schwartz has potential as a good right tackle, especially at the right price.
- Nate Potter, Tackle, Boise State: Potter is a hard man to judge based on the kind of teams that Boise has played. This is one of the reasons that guys from the SEC tend to dominate the draft, especially in the early stages, because coaches and scouts are more confident that the talent level in that conference approximates the kind of talent that players will face in the NFL.
The problem with Potter is simple. He's very inconsistent. That's a problem when we're talking about someone charged with protecting the quarterback from harm. His run blocking is not too bad, but pass blocking seems to be a struggle at times. I just think that if I was a personnel guy, I couldn't trust him enough to be anything more than a pure backup.
- Levy Adcock, Tackle, Oklahoma State: Whoever taught him that god awful awkward stance he used in 2010 and spent most of 2011 recovering from should be ashamed. In general Adcock is really not worth much. He struggles against any form of prolonged pass rush, his run blocking is only adequate and his awareness - especially when facing multiple edge rushers - is horrendous. Wasted pick in my opinion.
- Senio Kelemete, Tackle, Washington: Throw away pick if you ask me, which you kind of are by reading this. Kelemete is like a lot of college tackles that come into the NFL. It's not that he's bad, he's ok, but ok doesn't cut it at this level. Ok is going to give up two or more sacks per game and that's going to get you replaced very quickly. I'd rather carry on with another ok tackle and use the pick for someone that can make a difference.
- Mike Webster, Center, Ohio State: I actually quite like Webster. He's good against the run, getting great angles against the D-linemen and working his hips into the hole to keep the running lanes clear. He routinely takes on defensive tackles and wins, while demonstrating good technique. His pass drop is quite deep and rapid, which means he's pretty handy at picking up stunts and twists, but in the NFL he'll probably have to slow that down a little so as not to run himself back into the quarterback. Making that change could give him problems, but overall I think he's a good prospect that doesn't get that much attention.
- David DeCastro, Guard, Stanford: Impressive. Like a lot of offensive linemen from Stanford, DeCastro's running technique is very good. He takes good angles and sets his hips very well, with a solid blocking stance and pretty good strength. Sometimes he struggles a little twists and stunts but it's not a deal breaker. Can't really go wrong with DeCastro.
- Cordy Glenn, Tackle/Guard, Georgia: Slow and clumsy. That's basically Glenn in a nutshell. How about we add flag magnet to that list as well? Wouldn't even use my worst enemies pick on him, it just wouldn't be fair.
- Kevin Zeitler, Guard, Wisconsin: Good and bad from Zeitler. He's pretty strong in general and excels as a pulling guard on run plays. In pass protection Zeitler has been solid. But.... he does have a tendency to get overmatched against larger defensive tackles. I wonder how well he'd cope with someone like an Ndamukong Suh, Casey Hampton or Haloti Ngata at the next level?
- Peter Konz, Center, Wisconsin: Not bad, but not sure if I'd rate him the number one overall center as many have. Konz is pretty steady in run blocking, but sometimes has a tendency to overrun defenders when moving up to the second level. I'm not sure whether he just mentally has difficulty picking out his assignment or whether it's an agility thing. Pass protection is mostly sound, with pretty good leverage achieved on most plays. Perhaps outside of round one then Konz is worth a look.
- Ben Jones, Center, Georgia: Hit and miss. Sometimes his pass blocking can be really good when he gets his hips low and his hands under the defenders pads. The problem is that at times it seems like he needs the defender to run into him in order for him to pick the guy up. Against twists, stunts and blitzes he really can struggle to find his man and get his hands on him. Probably not NFL caliber.
- Philip Blake, Center, Baylor: Blake is an interesting prospect but a little difficult to judge. His play has been an excellent but the problem is that there are a number of mitigating factors that simply cannot be ignored. The first is that defenses often played Baylor with relatively wide splits in their defensive line and rarely with a man over the center. Thus Blake spent much of his career effectively down blocking.
The second problem is that Baylor played a very wide spread offense and most teams seemed not all that keen to blitz them, especially not up the middle. The product of that is that Blake really doesn't have a lot of experience handling complicated defensive attacks on the O-line, something he'll most definitely see at the next level.
Technique wise he's fine, but there are a lot of ifs and buts to be filled in. I think this situation lends itself to one where Blake would be drafted in the later rounds and used as developmental prospect, possibly at Guard as he has pretty good mobility. But honestly I think he's a bit of a gamble to draft. Undrafted, wouldn't have a problem with him at all.
- Grant Garner, Center, Oklahoma State: Like Blake, Garner is difficult to assess given the offense that he comes from. Generally speaking Garner shows some good technique but has difficulty man handling the bigger defenders, and though his hands are quite active and he seems to move his feet well, he'd need a lot of work in the gym to make it in the NFL, providing he could handle the step up in technique in the first place.
Next up will be everyones favourite, the Quarterbacks.
Thursday, March 01, 2012
Leap Day update
I'm probably about 40-50% of the way through my post on the 2012 offensive line class. In a nutshell, the centers and guards are proving to be somewhat of a bitch film wise. But I shall press on. Depending on the time and my work, expect the full article by the end of the week.
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