When reading today's article please keep in mind that I am in indescribable pain thanks to a lost filling in one of my teeth. If I seem like I'm aimlessly ranting at any point, it could just be pure frustration from the pain or loss of senses from the painkillers. Or it might just be me going on one of my rants. Either way, I'll be using the pain as an excuse.
Basically today I want to talk about a subject that invariably seems to bug the hell out of me every year, mostly because every season - without fail - there will be numerous examples of teams failing to adhere to what is effectively a foundational adage of football; get your best players involved in the game. Or "feed your studs". Or "let your kid make a play". Or any other version of that same theme.
Because for me the difference in the Giants/49ers NFC Championship game was, at least from an offensive perspective, the greater ability and desire of the Giants to get the ball into the hands of their best players, such as receiver Victor Cruz. The 49ers meanwhile barely tried to get the ball to Vernon Davis and Frank Gore, arguably the two most talented players on that offense.
It's an issue familiar to fans of a number of teams. Talking to Vikings fans about this subject is like preaching to the converted. They've spent the last few seasons watching in vain as Adrian Peterson either stands on the sidelines or else gets called on to pass block (probably the weakest part of his game) as the Vikings insist on trying to pass their way to victory, despite having a dynamite running back who many consider to be the best in the league.
Nor will I have to lecture Ravens fans, who got all the ammunition they needed earlier this year from Terrell Suggs, who bemoaned on TV a lack of carries for Ray Rice, who without question is their most explosive playmaker on offense. That's not to say that receivers like Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith are bad, they absolutely are not. But the guy throwing to them can be very sketchy at times, the offensive line doesn't always hold up that well, and it still doesn't detract from the fact that Ray Rice is truly one of those "touchdown waiting to happen" type players.
Just ask the Chicago Bears. For a long time now Bears fans have been frustrated by the 'pass first' offense of Mike Martz, with the press pitching in too to apply the pressure. So it seems Martz decided to take it a little literally this year by saying - and I'm paraphrasing here - "fuck it, I'll run the ball every play for the first ten plays and I'll show them who's rig... oh shit this actually works".
Matt Forte had a fantastic season until he went down injured, showing off his skills in the open field after the Bears O-line opened up some big holes for him. Thus, in games where the Bears stuck with Forte and their running game, they actually did pretty well.
Now before we go any further, I accept that it's not feasible to just completely rely on one player for your entire offense. You can't run the ball with the same guy 60 times per game, or throw the ball to one player 40 times. You can try, but I'd hasten to suggest that in the modern era of adaptable and somewhat advanced defenses that you wont get very far.
But highlighting a certain player in your game plan (or indeed the adjunct to this; targeting a weak opposing player) should be a key feature of every coaches consideration in the run up to game day. If you have a great running back who has a knack for finding space and breaking off big runs then it makes sense for you to give him plenty of opportunities to do what it is that he does best.
If you have a great receiver who can run like the wind blows (yes, Forrest Gump is one of my favourite films, so screw you) and who has a great talent for catching jump balls then it makes sense to adjust your passing game plan to emphasis this talent and take advantage of it with plentiful opportunities for your star guy to get down field and make plays on jump balls. You can then set out much of the rest of your passing game to take advantage of a defensive over reaction to this threat.
And hell, the theory even applies to defense. If you have a great pass rushing outside linebacker then it makes little sense to have him dropping off into coverage 50% of the time. That means that on half of your defensive snaps you're not using one of your best players to his full potential. It doesn't mean you can go to the extreme and have him rush 100% of the time, not least because of the element of surprise opportunities that are present when you do ask him to drop off. However such a player probably should be spending 75% of your defensive snaps (or around that) doing the thing that he does best.
Got a safety who plays great coming down into the curl flat zone? Then for goodness sake make sure he gets plenty of chances to come down and poach in that zone. Admittedly here you have to be a little more careful about presenting the exact same coverage to the offense 75% of the time, and indeed you might even be looking at a figure under 50%, but at the very least you have to give your playmakers ample chances to play in the roles that suit them best.
It's just a real hobby horse of mine to jump on.
I just can't stand watching teams that clearly have a lot of potential squandering it through the misuse of key talent. When you see teams that have great running backs and terrible wide receiver corps trying to emulate the Colts and Patriots it kind of makes me sad, for the fans if not for the teams themselves. Or conversely when you see a team that has some great receivers on their roster, yet they're chucking the ball to the third string wide out on a screen pass or trying to throw deep bombs to the kid that's only caught two passes all season.
Compare and contrast to Tom Brady of the Patriots. Brady has some deep talent in his receiving corps, but fundamentally you know that when Brady drops back to pass he's only really interested in Rob Gronkowski or Wes Welker. Occasionally he'll distribute the ball to guys like Aaron Hernandez who is another excellent tight end, but there is a very good reason why Chad Ochocinco, Deion Branch, Tiquan Underwood and Julian Edelman haven't had their names called all that much this season. Brady knows where his money guys are and he goes looking for them early and often.
Even Aaron Rodgers (Discount Double Check!) has his favourites. Sure he distributes the love around that receiving corps a little more than some, but Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings still lead the way, mainly because they've been hot this season. Rodgers isn't a fool. He knows which receivers he trusts and which receivers are likely to make plays in the various scenarios that come up during a game.
On defense the principle can also be seen in action. The 49ers bringing Ahmad Brooks on plentiful blitzes. The Giants using linebacker blitzes to guarantee they get one on one matchups for defensive linemen like Jason Pierre-Paul. The Ravens getting plenty of mileage out of Terrell Suggs. The Eagles using a wide nine alignment for their defensive ends to take advantage of their pass rushing attributes.
It's a basic cornerstone of most team sports, not just football. You try and emphasise your key players, putting them in such a position that they can have the most effect on the outcome of a game. That's not to say that teams can just lean on one guy or that the other team members aren't important, but most successful basketball teams are the ones that create plenty of chances for their best players. It's the same with soccer, rugby, hockey and just about any other team sport you can name.
Simple things like designing three or four plays that are specifically designed for a key playmaker, or moving that playmaker around so that the opposition finds it hard to key in on him can make a huge difference. Consider as well the effect when teams have shut down key members of the opposition. When the Cowboys and Patriots met earlier this year, Rob Ryan must have dug up his game plan from the previous year with the Browns, as he managed to press Welker and Gronkowski practically out of the game entirely, at least until that final Patriots drive.
Or the amount of times this season that teams have doubled up on Clay Matthews with their running back or tight end helping out the right tackle with a chip, not to mention the fact that because the Packers have hardly moved Matthews around this year he's practically been a sitting duck for quarterbacks to set their protection against.
It really is one of the easiest ways that a coach can have a big influence on his team or on his opponents, by emphasising his strongest players while shutting out the opponents biggest threats. It takes very little in the way of adjustments on the part of the coordinators, especially given the impact that it can have on the game.
That's the main thing I'll be watching out for next Sunday as the Giants take on the Patriots. I want to see what steps - if any - that the Giants defense takes to try and erase Welker and Gronkowski (if he plays, which it looks likely that he will) from the game, as well as what blitzes and stunts they use to try and get their playmaking pass rushers into favourable match ups.
Also I'm intrigued as to how the Patriots will use motion and formations to try and keep Welker away from the likes of Aaron Ross, while giving themselves plenty of chances to get the ball to their key receivers. On defense I'm interested to see what blitzes Bill Belichick will come up with to emphasise the talents of guys like Rob Ninkovich, and how he's going to organise a secondary that doesn't look like it matches up well with the Giants plethora of talent at the wide receiver position.
Remember; play to your strengths!
Monday, January 30, 2012
Sunday, January 29, 2012
I have toothache
As it says in the title. I want to write a kind of bumper post regarding playmakers and their value, creating opportunities for them etc as we approach the Super Bowl. But right now I'm busy trying to find enough paracetamol to dull the pain before I punch this damn tooth out.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
NFL Conference Championships
Another week is done and now we're just two weeks (and one game) away from finding out who will rule the roost in 2011/12. And then we enter the six month dark age that is the NFL off season. Let's start in the AFC.
"Tight" doesn't do this game justice. "Hanging by a thread" would perhaps be more appropriate. There has been a lot of fuss over decisions by the referees that robbed the Ravens, as well as a scoreboard malfunction that naturally has everyone looking at Bill Belichick with suspicious eyes, and there is maybe some merit in some of the arguments (about the refs at least), but ultimately the Ravens killed themselves. With the game on the line they rushed out the field goal unit with just 19 seconds on the shot clock and a timeout still on the board.
Why do you not take that timeout?
Instead you make the kicker rush out, quickly set up your unit and he bottles it. Just stupid. Just like that, in 19 seconds of crazy the Ravens threw away what had otherwise been a somewhat memorable season for them after their performances against the Steelers for example.
It was an odd game - and in many ways a sub par game - all the way through. Both quarterbacks ended up 22/36, with Flacco throwing for 306 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception, while Brady had an uncharacteristically bad day (by his standards), throwing for 239 yards and 2 interceptions. In particular Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski weren't as effective after the catch as you'd normally expect them to be.
Both defenses certainly came with their lunches packed and ready to hit. Vince Wilfork of the Patriots in particular has been drawing a lot of praise and rightfully so. He was a real force inside for New England and it showed in Ray Rices numbers; just 67 yards from 21 rushing attempts.
Ironically enough though it was a defensive mistake by the Ravens that gave the Patriots a way in for their second score. At no point it would seem did anyone see the danger that Brady might leap over the line on a quick snap from such a short distance, thus nobody was in place just behind the line to take away the quick QB dive. You just get the feeling watching that, that Ray Lewis in his prime would have been over the line the minute the ball moved and would have stuffed Brady almost before he even got airborne.
But the Pats hung in there and by a stroke of unbelievable luck they found themselves dancing in victory when just moments before they had been planning to hunker down for a tough and nail biting over time battle. That means Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are going back to the Super Bowl once more; their fifth together.
And there - unfortunately - they will meet the New York Football Giants.
Because the Harbaugh bowl was not to be, not least because neither Harbaugh made it. Honestly I'm not as disappointed as many 49ers fans, because I never expected us to be in the NFC Championship game in the first place. Hell I didn't even think we'd make the play offs. Make the play offs we did though, and now that we're out of them I kind of just accept that we had a fun run, we had a great season, and now we have a lot to look forward to in 2012/13.
We'll certainly look back on this game and see it as typical of our first season under Jim Harbaugh.
The defense put in another great showing. In particular the front three were impressive as ever, bringing pressure on Eli Manning often without need for a blitz, and when they did get help the four man rush was at times enough to over power the Giants line completely.
The offense however continued its trend throughout the season of not being all that effective. Alex Smith managed to hit his money man Vernon Davis three times for some big plays, but it just wasn't enough. There's an old phrase that gets banded around the football coaching world and that phrase is "feed your stud", as in "get the ball to the best player/s".
When you compare Davis's numbers to Giants receiver Victor Cruz who Eli Manning found 10 times for 142 yards, that really puts it into perspective. Davis was targeted 5 times in total, while Cruz got 17 shots from Manning. Michael Crabtree caught one of his four targets and Kyle Williams zero out of 4 passes on a torrid day for him personally. I think Giants receiver Hakeem Nicks wins though, catching just 5 of the 12 passes swung his way.
And this has been the challenge all season long for the 49ers. The defense may be great at coming up with big interceptions, fumbles and sacks - especially in critical moments - but you need an offense that will actually take advantage of that. Causing turnovers and forcing punts is all well and good, but 1/13 on third down (I'm not even kidding, go and look it up) is just flat out horrible (the Giants were 7/21).
Given the kind of quality the 49ers defense has produced, even an average offense like the Bengals would have been enough to win most games, and just one more touchdown could have put San Francisco through to the big game. In the end the 49ers defense came up with 6 sacks, including 2.5 sacks for the chronically under appreciated Ray McDonald, as well as forcing 12 punts out of the Giants.
Credit to the Giants defense though, they were a big part in why the 49ers came up short so often. They forced 10 punts out of San Francisco's offense, not least because of the three sacks, including 1.5 for Justin Tuck. On offense Eli Manning was just 32 of 58, though it did yield 316 yards and 2 touchdowns. Certainly it matched up favourably to Alex Smith's 12/26 for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns.
There is one thing though that everyone is waiting for me to bring up and that would be Kyle Williams and his special teams performance. The first thing we need to do is to get some perspective. Ted Ginn.Jr is the normal returns guy, but due to injury it fell to Williams to step up. Kyle is a second year receiver who has not seen much of the football in his career so far, so his confidence is not exactly sky high, especially under the big lights.
The first mistake was pretty stupid, not getting out of the way of the punt and letting it clip his knee. The second mistake was just a basic error that is ridiculously common in the NFL (considering this is supposed to be the big league) of not tucking the ball away high and tight. It still astounds me that guys are making this mistake, young or not.
As a result Williams is getting a ton of flak for his performance and frankly I call bullshit on that. Football is the ultimate team sport. The ultimate team sport. One man very rarely wins or loses a football game. and before people start laying into Williams they need to take a long, hard look at those offensive numbers.
One of thirteen on third downs? That's chronic. Even the Browns offense would come away from a game embarrassed by that. To put it all on the shoulders of Kyle Williams is to misunderstand the nature of football and I personally have no issue with him. Alright, he had a bad day, and it just so happened that it was on the same day as the NFC Championship game. That doesn't make up for his mistakes, but it does acknowledge that it wasn't solely his fault. It was a team loss.
Meanwhile congratulations to the Giants who put on a great effort in all phases and thoroughly deserved their victory. They kept fighting, kept plugging away all game long and in the end they got their just reward. It's funny now looking at it to think that at the end of last season people were calling for Tom Coughlin to be fired, despite winning 10 games.
At the time I said that was stupid and that the Giants still had a long way to go under Coughlin, that they were still a very good team that just needed to clean up some of the issues on offense and get their D-line back to its dominant form of the past. And now here we are, 12 months later, with the Giants headed to Super Bowl 46 and a rematch with the New England Patriots.
It's going to be a hum dinger this year, I can just feel it.
Hopefully later this week I'll get a chance to throw up some diagrams of some of the plays from the weekends action. As you probably already know I'm pretty busy lately and it's only getting more so what with the draft now looming on the horizon which means I'm spending a lot of time looking at the next crop of potential NFL stars.
That also means I wont have time to cover the Pro Bowl, but then nobody cares about the Pro Bowl anyway.
"Tight" doesn't do this game justice. "Hanging by a thread" would perhaps be more appropriate. There has been a lot of fuss over decisions by the referees that robbed the Ravens, as well as a scoreboard malfunction that naturally has everyone looking at Bill Belichick with suspicious eyes, and there is maybe some merit in some of the arguments (about the refs at least), but ultimately the Ravens killed themselves. With the game on the line they rushed out the field goal unit with just 19 seconds on the shot clock and a timeout still on the board.
Why do you not take that timeout?
Instead you make the kicker rush out, quickly set up your unit and he bottles it. Just stupid. Just like that, in 19 seconds of crazy the Ravens threw away what had otherwise been a somewhat memorable season for them after their performances against the Steelers for example.
It was an odd game - and in many ways a sub par game - all the way through. Both quarterbacks ended up 22/36, with Flacco throwing for 306 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception, while Brady had an uncharacteristically bad day (by his standards), throwing for 239 yards and 2 interceptions. In particular Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski weren't as effective after the catch as you'd normally expect them to be.
Both defenses certainly came with their lunches packed and ready to hit. Vince Wilfork of the Patriots in particular has been drawing a lot of praise and rightfully so. He was a real force inside for New England and it showed in Ray Rices numbers; just 67 yards from 21 rushing attempts.
Ironically enough though it was a defensive mistake by the Ravens that gave the Patriots a way in for their second score. At no point it would seem did anyone see the danger that Brady might leap over the line on a quick snap from such a short distance, thus nobody was in place just behind the line to take away the quick QB dive. You just get the feeling watching that, that Ray Lewis in his prime would have been over the line the minute the ball moved and would have stuffed Brady almost before he even got airborne.
But the Pats hung in there and by a stroke of unbelievable luck they found themselves dancing in victory when just moments before they had been planning to hunker down for a tough and nail biting over time battle. That means Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are going back to the Super Bowl once more; their fifth together.
And there - unfortunately - they will meet the New York Football Giants.
Because the Harbaugh bowl was not to be, not least because neither Harbaugh made it. Honestly I'm not as disappointed as many 49ers fans, because I never expected us to be in the NFC Championship game in the first place. Hell I didn't even think we'd make the play offs. Make the play offs we did though, and now that we're out of them I kind of just accept that we had a fun run, we had a great season, and now we have a lot to look forward to in 2012/13.
We'll certainly look back on this game and see it as typical of our first season under Jim Harbaugh.
The defense put in another great showing. In particular the front three were impressive as ever, bringing pressure on Eli Manning often without need for a blitz, and when they did get help the four man rush was at times enough to over power the Giants line completely.
The offense however continued its trend throughout the season of not being all that effective. Alex Smith managed to hit his money man Vernon Davis three times for some big plays, but it just wasn't enough. There's an old phrase that gets banded around the football coaching world and that phrase is "feed your stud", as in "get the ball to the best player/s".
When you compare Davis's numbers to Giants receiver Victor Cruz who Eli Manning found 10 times for 142 yards, that really puts it into perspective. Davis was targeted 5 times in total, while Cruz got 17 shots from Manning. Michael Crabtree caught one of his four targets and Kyle Williams zero out of 4 passes on a torrid day for him personally. I think Giants receiver Hakeem Nicks wins though, catching just 5 of the 12 passes swung his way.
And this has been the challenge all season long for the 49ers. The defense may be great at coming up with big interceptions, fumbles and sacks - especially in critical moments - but you need an offense that will actually take advantage of that. Causing turnovers and forcing punts is all well and good, but 1/13 on third down (I'm not even kidding, go and look it up) is just flat out horrible (the Giants were 7/21).
Given the kind of quality the 49ers defense has produced, even an average offense like the Bengals would have been enough to win most games, and just one more touchdown could have put San Francisco through to the big game. In the end the 49ers defense came up with 6 sacks, including 2.5 sacks for the chronically under appreciated Ray McDonald, as well as forcing 12 punts out of the Giants.
Credit to the Giants defense though, they were a big part in why the 49ers came up short so often. They forced 10 punts out of San Francisco's offense, not least because of the three sacks, including 1.5 for Justin Tuck. On offense Eli Manning was just 32 of 58, though it did yield 316 yards and 2 touchdowns. Certainly it matched up favourably to Alex Smith's 12/26 for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns.
There is one thing though that everyone is waiting for me to bring up and that would be Kyle Williams and his special teams performance. The first thing we need to do is to get some perspective. Ted Ginn.Jr is the normal returns guy, but due to injury it fell to Williams to step up. Kyle is a second year receiver who has not seen much of the football in his career so far, so his confidence is not exactly sky high, especially under the big lights.
The first mistake was pretty stupid, not getting out of the way of the punt and letting it clip his knee. The second mistake was just a basic error that is ridiculously common in the NFL (considering this is supposed to be the big league) of not tucking the ball away high and tight. It still astounds me that guys are making this mistake, young or not.
As a result Williams is getting a ton of flak for his performance and frankly I call bullshit on that. Football is the ultimate team sport. The ultimate team sport. One man very rarely wins or loses a football game. and before people start laying into Williams they need to take a long, hard look at those offensive numbers.
One of thirteen on third downs? That's chronic. Even the Browns offense would come away from a game embarrassed by that. To put it all on the shoulders of Kyle Williams is to misunderstand the nature of football and I personally have no issue with him. Alright, he had a bad day, and it just so happened that it was on the same day as the NFC Championship game. That doesn't make up for his mistakes, but it does acknowledge that it wasn't solely his fault. It was a team loss.
Meanwhile congratulations to the Giants who put on a great effort in all phases and thoroughly deserved their victory. They kept fighting, kept plugging away all game long and in the end they got their just reward. It's funny now looking at it to think that at the end of last season people were calling for Tom Coughlin to be fired, despite winning 10 games.
At the time I said that was stupid and that the Giants still had a long way to go under Coughlin, that they were still a very good team that just needed to clean up some of the issues on offense and get their D-line back to its dominant form of the past. And now here we are, 12 months later, with the Giants headed to Super Bowl 46 and a rematch with the New England Patriots.
It's going to be a hum dinger this year, I can just feel it.
Hopefully later this week I'll get a chance to throw up some diagrams of some of the plays from the weekends action. As you probably already know I'm pretty busy lately and it's only getting more so what with the draft now looming on the horizon which means I'm spending a lot of time looking at the next crop of potential NFL stars.
That also means I wont have time to cover the Pro Bowl, but then nobody cares about the Pro Bowl anyway.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Much delayed Divisional Round thoughts
Divisional Round?
I think the title for the previous week "Wildcard" would have been more appropriate. It was a wild weekend of action and a couple of results that drew the eye.
We'll start in Green Bay where the Giants waltzed into town as the underdogs and then waltzed out again as winners. Simply put, that was a huge result for New York. Perhaps more of importance for the Giants was the way they won the game. Not only did the offense do a nice number on Green Bay, but the defense came up big too.
The Packers didn't help themselves though, what with all the drops and the three fumbles. You can't take away from the Giants thought just how impressive they were. Michael Boley and Osi Umenyiora in particular did a great job.
It's a stark contrast when you look at the Packers defense. What has happened to that unit? Everyone seems very keen to talk about the poor tackling - which is a legitimate issue - and also the general struggles of the Packers secondary in coverage compared to last year, but I'm frankly stunned at how little attention is being given to their front line.
The loss of Cullen Jenkins in free agency (to the Eagles) kind of went unnoticed by many, the assumption being that B.J. Raji and Ryan Pickett would pick up the slack. But that simply hasn't happened. Clay Matthews has been a non-factor. In fact the entire Packers front seven has been a non-factor.
Ok, so they make the occasional play here and there, but against the best teams that's simply not enough, as evidenced by Eli Manning putting up over 300 yards, with nearly 170 yards and 2 touchdowns hauled in by Hakeem Nicks alone.
Which also speaks volumes of the Giants offense. Nicks and Victor Cruz are shaping themselves up to be exceptional weapons this season. They run good routes and they catch pretty well, but their main advantage has been once they have the ball in their hands. Most of their hefty yardage has been clocked up after the catch, ala Wes Welker/Jerry Rice.
I should point out that I'm not putting them in that league - not yet - but a few more seasons like this and people will certainly remember the names Cruz and Nicks.
It wasn't a perfect showing by the Giants, in particular Eli Manning still has some issues to sort out with his accuracy and some of his decision making, but in general it was a pretty handy showing and will give Giants fans plenty of confidence going into this weeks game with the 49ers.
Which brings me to Candlestick Park and the 49ers entertaining (and beating... mwhahahahaha!) the Saints, in what was surely one of the most exciting finishes to a playoff game in recent memory.
And in a way I'm a bit sad about that.
As a 49ers fan I shouldn't be. I should be (and really am) elated. The problem I have is that it has further driven the hype behind the genius of Jim Harbaugh. While Harbaugh doubtless has a big impact on his team, I've been saying for a while now that it's Vic Fangio who should really be getting most of the praise.
He's taken a defensive unit that was already pretty handy and, with the addition of veteran corner Carlos Rogers, rookie corner Chris Culliver, and rookie pass rusher Aldon Smith, turned them into something even more special. He's getting the best out of guys like Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner, who are largely unheralded for their efforts due to the massive success of the pass rush (the 49ers had 11 passes defended, which equals the amount of QB hits they had for the game).
It's a group that right now can lay a genuine claim to rivalling any of the best defenses in NFL history. Simply put, they're dominating teams this season. They made the Saints offensive line - probably one of the best units in the NFL and unheralded in their own right - look ordinary. The pressure was consistent and at times stifling.
Still, the Saints put up an impressive fight. I think people are forgetting that even under such pressure Brees still hit 462 yards and 4 touchdowns. That's a phenomenal showing. In the end though his two interceptions and the three team fumbles by the Saints proved very costly.
Then there was Alex Smith.
For all his late game heroics he still barely nudged over a 50% completion percentage, hitting just 24/42. It didn't matter though. When the time came and the game was on the line, Smith brought the goods. Of special note for me was the way he went after tight end Vernon Davis when the crunch time came around.
This is something of a hobby horse of mine, as long time readers will be aware. I pound and pound and pound away at the issue of playing to your strengths, minimising your weaknesses and putting the ball in the hands of your play makers, of the guys that really can make a difference.
For the 49ers, that's Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. Davis ended the game with 7 catches for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns. Gore's numbers were slightly less impressive, but at least Smith went looking for him plenty enough. Expect Smith to continue that in the NFC Conference game as he's doubtless lost a lot of faith in Michael Crabtree, who he targeted 10 times (the same as Davis) but who only caught 4 of the ten passes.
The message is clear; when the going gets tough, find your money guys. Brees did exactly the same, going to Darren Sproles 19 times and Marques Colston 12 times. Maybe he might have lent on the excellent tight end Jimmy Graham a little more (8 targets), but Graham still did him proud anyway.
It was a crazy game with a crazy finish. I'm just glad that a) I saw it and b) that the 49ers won it! This was also the only pick of the four games that I got right. I've always sucked at trying to call playoff games.
Onto the AFC and we have to talk Broncos at Patriots first.
See I'm not exactly a huge fan of the mainstream press reporting on the NFL and that's even more so the case now. In fact, I'm calling bullshit on the media.
The reason I say that is because after the Packers game commentators on TV and all the talk shows were falling over themselves to bail out Aaron Rodgers by rightly pointing out that his receivers dropped a lot of otherwise catchable passes. And that's fine.
But how come Tebow isn't getting the same treatment?
Matt Willis was targeted four times and caught just one pass. Eddie Royal was targeted eight times, eight, and caught a whopping 2 passes. In the regular season Eddie Royal caught just 19 of the 49 passes slung his way (very few of the Bronos receivers did much better, but not quite as bad).
So where are the hoardes of TV talking heads bailing Tebow out and saying "oh it's terrible, he keeps hitting guys in the hands and they keep dropping it. You have to catch those passes etc"?
It's just the classic bull crap that I guess I should really expect no less of from places like ProFootballTalk. When it's a big name star like Rodgers it's all the fault of the receivers for not catching otherwise perfectly catchable balls, but when it's a guy like Tebow then all of a sudden it's his fault that the ball keeps hitting receivers on the fingers instead of slotting perfectly into their hands.
It just fucking frustrates me, the press pandering to the big names but not cutting a break for a young guy just because there is a false perception (as I've shown here many times with film evidence) that he doesn't have a "classic" throwing motion (because apparently having a similar motion to Joe Montana and Dan Marino isn't "classic" enough).
But enough of that and on to the Patriots, who rightly deserve praise for the way they played. Their offensive line in particular was in fantastic form. They allowed zero sacks, one tackle for loss and just two QB hits. It was an absolute domination of the line of scrimmage. Their defensive front did the same on the other side of the ball; 5 sacks, 8 QB hits, 10 tackles for loss. It was a master class in the trenches.
And then there was Brady.
363 yards and 6 touchdowns, which ties the record for the most touchdowns thrown in a post season game. He was almost faultless. He even put on a virtual clinic in the idea I was talking about earlier of playing to your strengths and getting the ball to your key play makers. He searched out tight end Rob Gronkowski 12 times and they connected 10 times, as Gronkowski racked up 145 yards and a post season record 3 touchdowns. You basically couldn't ask for a better poster child for this idea.
Though I have to say it still amazes me how much room people are prepared to give Welker and Gronkowski. It's been shown - on film - both here and elsewhere that press coverage is the best way to handle Welker and Gronkowski. In fact Brady often struggles in the face of such coverage, basically as a result of how he goes about reading (re; staring down) his receivers at the snap.
Yet people still insist on giving guys like Welker and Gronkowski a massive cushion with their secondary, then somehow expecting the pass rush to just magic its way past the Patriots tough O-line. Unless the Ravens figure it out or the winner of the NFC Championship game does, then I think New England could well be a safe bet to win it all this season, they're just that good.
And nobody outside of the wider Boston area wants to see that.
We end with the Texans at the Ravens and one of the very few legitimate cases in football where the actions of one man can cost his team a heavy price. I'm looking at you Jacoby Jones. Why, for the love of God, did he have to try and make a play on that ball? As the colour commentator for the game remarked, nothing good could possibly have come from that.
The result was a turnover that denied his team a possession and gave the Ravens a perfect scoring opportunity. There literally is no excuse for that mistake. None.
The game was still up for grabs though. Unfortunately T.J. Yates found out first hand what's like to be a rookie quarterback facing an experienced safety in the shape of Ed Reed. Yates threw three picks and hit Reed in the hands twice more. It's frankly a semi-miracle that the Texans managed to keep this one as close as they did.
There was some good running by Arian Foster which helped, as did a 100 yard game from Andre Johnson, but Kevin Walters 2 catches from 8 targets leaves a lot to be desired. The Texans defense also had a huge game with rookies J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed both putting up 2.5 sacks, along with the teams 6 tackles for loss and 7 passes defended.
By contrast the Ravens defense looked pedestrian outside of the 3 picks and 11 total pass break ups. They really struggled to generate any pressure on Yates and couldn't contain Arian Foster, which doesn't bode well for their ensuing match up with the Patriots in the AFC Conference game.
They did enough though, and I guess that's all that matters.
So that's the Divisional Round done and on to the Championship games. I bet I'm not the only one who is intrigued by the prospect of the Giants and the Patriots potentially meeting again in the Super Bowl, especially as many of the conditions from that previous season are being repeated now. It's bordering on Deja Vu.
Of course I'd rather see the 49ers make it, and indeed if both the 49ers and Ravens get through then we get a repeat of the Harbaugh Bowl, which should be equally as interesting. I'll be rooting for my beloved red and gold, but I can't help but think we're living on borrowed time and that payback is due soon.
I might as well get my picks out of the way now. I'm taking the Patriots over the Ravens because I can't see the Ravens slowing down the Patriots, and they're sure as hell not gonna out score them! Then I'm going to take the 49ers over the Giants, because the Giants O-line is vulnerable and because it's a fan boy pick so there!
I think the title for the previous week "Wildcard" would have been more appropriate. It was a wild weekend of action and a couple of results that drew the eye.
We'll start in Green Bay where the Giants waltzed into town as the underdogs and then waltzed out again as winners. Simply put, that was a huge result for New York. Perhaps more of importance for the Giants was the way they won the game. Not only did the offense do a nice number on Green Bay, but the defense came up big too.
The Packers didn't help themselves though, what with all the drops and the three fumbles. You can't take away from the Giants thought just how impressive they were. Michael Boley and Osi Umenyiora in particular did a great job.
It's a stark contrast when you look at the Packers defense. What has happened to that unit? Everyone seems very keen to talk about the poor tackling - which is a legitimate issue - and also the general struggles of the Packers secondary in coverage compared to last year, but I'm frankly stunned at how little attention is being given to their front line.
The loss of Cullen Jenkins in free agency (to the Eagles) kind of went unnoticed by many, the assumption being that B.J. Raji and Ryan Pickett would pick up the slack. But that simply hasn't happened. Clay Matthews has been a non-factor. In fact the entire Packers front seven has been a non-factor.
Ok, so they make the occasional play here and there, but against the best teams that's simply not enough, as evidenced by Eli Manning putting up over 300 yards, with nearly 170 yards and 2 touchdowns hauled in by Hakeem Nicks alone.
Which also speaks volumes of the Giants offense. Nicks and Victor Cruz are shaping themselves up to be exceptional weapons this season. They run good routes and they catch pretty well, but their main advantage has been once they have the ball in their hands. Most of their hefty yardage has been clocked up after the catch, ala Wes Welker/Jerry Rice.
I should point out that I'm not putting them in that league - not yet - but a few more seasons like this and people will certainly remember the names Cruz and Nicks.
It wasn't a perfect showing by the Giants, in particular Eli Manning still has some issues to sort out with his accuracy and some of his decision making, but in general it was a pretty handy showing and will give Giants fans plenty of confidence going into this weeks game with the 49ers.
Which brings me to Candlestick Park and the 49ers entertaining (and beating... mwhahahahaha!) the Saints, in what was surely one of the most exciting finishes to a playoff game in recent memory.
And in a way I'm a bit sad about that.
As a 49ers fan I shouldn't be. I should be (and really am) elated. The problem I have is that it has further driven the hype behind the genius of Jim Harbaugh. While Harbaugh doubtless has a big impact on his team, I've been saying for a while now that it's Vic Fangio who should really be getting most of the praise.
He's taken a defensive unit that was already pretty handy and, with the addition of veteran corner Carlos Rogers, rookie corner Chris Culliver, and rookie pass rusher Aldon Smith, turned them into something even more special. He's getting the best out of guys like Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner, who are largely unheralded for their efforts due to the massive success of the pass rush (the 49ers had 11 passes defended, which equals the amount of QB hits they had for the game).
It's a group that right now can lay a genuine claim to rivalling any of the best defenses in NFL history. Simply put, they're dominating teams this season. They made the Saints offensive line - probably one of the best units in the NFL and unheralded in their own right - look ordinary. The pressure was consistent and at times stifling.
Still, the Saints put up an impressive fight. I think people are forgetting that even under such pressure Brees still hit 462 yards and 4 touchdowns. That's a phenomenal showing. In the end though his two interceptions and the three team fumbles by the Saints proved very costly.
Then there was Alex Smith.
For all his late game heroics he still barely nudged over a 50% completion percentage, hitting just 24/42. It didn't matter though. When the time came and the game was on the line, Smith brought the goods. Of special note for me was the way he went after tight end Vernon Davis when the crunch time came around.
This is something of a hobby horse of mine, as long time readers will be aware. I pound and pound and pound away at the issue of playing to your strengths, minimising your weaknesses and putting the ball in the hands of your play makers, of the guys that really can make a difference.
For the 49ers, that's Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. Davis ended the game with 7 catches for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns. Gore's numbers were slightly less impressive, but at least Smith went looking for him plenty enough. Expect Smith to continue that in the NFC Conference game as he's doubtless lost a lot of faith in Michael Crabtree, who he targeted 10 times (the same as Davis) but who only caught 4 of the ten passes.
The message is clear; when the going gets tough, find your money guys. Brees did exactly the same, going to Darren Sproles 19 times and Marques Colston 12 times. Maybe he might have lent on the excellent tight end Jimmy Graham a little more (8 targets), but Graham still did him proud anyway.
It was a crazy game with a crazy finish. I'm just glad that a) I saw it and b) that the 49ers won it! This was also the only pick of the four games that I got right. I've always sucked at trying to call playoff games.
Onto the AFC and we have to talk Broncos at Patriots first.
See I'm not exactly a huge fan of the mainstream press reporting on the NFL and that's even more so the case now. In fact, I'm calling bullshit on the media.
The reason I say that is because after the Packers game commentators on TV and all the talk shows were falling over themselves to bail out Aaron Rodgers by rightly pointing out that his receivers dropped a lot of otherwise catchable passes. And that's fine.
But how come Tebow isn't getting the same treatment?
Matt Willis was targeted four times and caught just one pass. Eddie Royal was targeted eight times, eight, and caught a whopping 2 passes. In the regular season Eddie Royal caught just 19 of the 49 passes slung his way (very few of the Bronos receivers did much better, but not quite as bad).
So where are the hoardes of TV talking heads bailing Tebow out and saying "oh it's terrible, he keeps hitting guys in the hands and they keep dropping it. You have to catch those passes etc"?
It's just the classic bull crap that I guess I should really expect no less of from places like ProFootballTalk. When it's a big name star like Rodgers it's all the fault of the receivers for not catching otherwise perfectly catchable balls, but when it's a guy like Tebow then all of a sudden it's his fault that the ball keeps hitting receivers on the fingers instead of slotting perfectly into their hands.
It just fucking frustrates me, the press pandering to the big names but not cutting a break for a young guy just because there is a false perception (as I've shown here many times with film evidence) that he doesn't have a "classic" throwing motion (because apparently having a similar motion to Joe Montana and Dan Marino isn't "classic" enough).
But enough of that and on to the Patriots, who rightly deserve praise for the way they played. Their offensive line in particular was in fantastic form. They allowed zero sacks, one tackle for loss and just two QB hits. It was an absolute domination of the line of scrimmage. Their defensive front did the same on the other side of the ball; 5 sacks, 8 QB hits, 10 tackles for loss. It was a master class in the trenches.
And then there was Brady.
363 yards and 6 touchdowns, which ties the record for the most touchdowns thrown in a post season game. He was almost faultless. He even put on a virtual clinic in the idea I was talking about earlier of playing to your strengths and getting the ball to your key play makers. He searched out tight end Rob Gronkowski 12 times and they connected 10 times, as Gronkowski racked up 145 yards and a post season record 3 touchdowns. You basically couldn't ask for a better poster child for this idea.
Though I have to say it still amazes me how much room people are prepared to give Welker and Gronkowski. It's been shown - on film - both here and elsewhere that press coverage is the best way to handle Welker and Gronkowski. In fact Brady often struggles in the face of such coverage, basically as a result of how he goes about reading (re; staring down) his receivers at the snap.
Yet people still insist on giving guys like Welker and Gronkowski a massive cushion with their secondary, then somehow expecting the pass rush to just magic its way past the Patriots tough O-line. Unless the Ravens figure it out or the winner of the NFC Championship game does, then I think New England could well be a safe bet to win it all this season, they're just that good.
And nobody outside of the wider Boston area wants to see that.
We end with the Texans at the Ravens and one of the very few legitimate cases in football where the actions of one man can cost his team a heavy price. I'm looking at you Jacoby Jones. Why, for the love of God, did he have to try and make a play on that ball? As the colour commentator for the game remarked, nothing good could possibly have come from that.
The result was a turnover that denied his team a possession and gave the Ravens a perfect scoring opportunity. There literally is no excuse for that mistake. None.
The game was still up for grabs though. Unfortunately T.J. Yates found out first hand what's like to be a rookie quarterback facing an experienced safety in the shape of Ed Reed. Yates threw three picks and hit Reed in the hands twice more. It's frankly a semi-miracle that the Texans managed to keep this one as close as they did.
There was some good running by Arian Foster which helped, as did a 100 yard game from Andre Johnson, but Kevin Walters 2 catches from 8 targets leaves a lot to be desired. The Texans defense also had a huge game with rookies J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed both putting up 2.5 sacks, along with the teams 6 tackles for loss and 7 passes defended.
By contrast the Ravens defense looked pedestrian outside of the 3 picks and 11 total pass break ups. They really struggled to generate any pressure on Yates and couldn't contain Arian Foster, which doesn't bode well for their ensuing match up with the Patriots in the AFC Conference game.
They did enough though, and I guess that's all that matters.
So that's the Divisional Round done and on to the Championship games. I bet I'm not the only one who is intrigued by the prospect of the Giants and the Patriots potentially meeting again in the Super Bowl, especially as many of the conditions from that previous season are being repeated now. It's bordering on Deja Vu.
Of course I'd rather see the 49ers make it, and indeed if both the 49ers and Ravens get through then we get a repeat of the Harbaugh Bowl, which should be equally as interesting. I'll be rooting for my beloved red and gold, but I can't help but think we're living on borrowed time and that payback is due soon.
I might as well get my picks out of the way now. I'm taking the Patriots over the Ravens because I can't see the Ravens slowing down the Patriots, and they're sure as hell not gonna out score them! Then I'm going to take the 49ers over the Giants, because the Giants O-line is vulnerable and because it's a fan boy pick so there!
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Update 01/18/12
Just to let you know I have a half finished round up post on all things that caught my eye from the divisional round. It might take a while to go up though because in an hour or so I have to go and buy some wood, then craft that into two poorly designed, semi-usable benches for the benefit of putting flower pots on. The s**t I do for other people.
But suffice to say it's in the works. Stay tuned.
EDIT;
So I've been basically at the grind stone for damn near 14 hours straight, so I apologise. At the very earliest it's going to be another 12 hours before I can post my thoughts on last weekends action, despite it being 4 days late!
Those who've followed my blog since at least last year will know that at one point I was posting on basically a daily basis. But lately my time is just being consumed from every possible direction (including scouting out players for the 2012 draft, which is kind of half work, half play).
It frustrates me that I don't have as much time to devote to the blog, especially as I don't get to do as much diagram work as I would like. Having only figured out just this season how to import diagrams into the blog, it's incredibly annoying that I can't do more of that. Personally I feel it's one of the ways that allows my blog to stand out from the rest.
But that's the way things are sometimes I'm afraid. And I'll be doing my best to get my post up tomorrow, after I've had a chance to rest my hands and eyes! Thanks for your patience.
But suffice to say it's in the works. Stay tuned.
EDIT;
So I've been basically at the grind stone for damn near 14 hours straight, so I apologise. At the very earliest it's going to be another 12 hours before I can post my thoughts on last weekends action, despite it being 4 days late!
Those who've followed my blog since at least last year will know that at one point I was posting on basically a daily basis. But lately my time is just being consumed from every possible direction (including scouting out players for the 2012 draft, which is kind of half work, half play).
It frustrates me that I don't have as much time to devote to the blog, especially as I don't get to do as much diagram work as I would like. Having only figured out just this season how to import diagrams into the blog, it's incredibly annoying that I can't do more of that. Personally I feel it's one of the ways that allows my blog to stand out from the rest.
But that's the way things are sometimes I'm afraid. And I'll be doing my best to get my post up tomorrow, after I've had a chance to rest my hands and eyes! Thanks for your patience.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Divisional round preview and picks
This week I was hoping to do a post about the zone blitz as often used by the Steelers, then comparing it to the man coverage that they used more last week against the Broncos, but alas the New Year has brought with it a mountain of things to do and work to be finished, leaving me little spare time so far. What I do have time for ahead of the divisional round action is to throw out some picks.
Starting in the AFC with the Broncos travelling to the Patriots. Personally I don't think any of this weeks games are going to be easy to pick, but I've been struggling in particular with this one. The reason I say that is because the Broncos actually have more of a shot in this than many would think. The Patriots secondary is nowhere near the level of the Steelers and yet the Steelers found themselves routinely getting burned deep. The Steelers had a better pass rush than the Patriots are likely to produce, and injuries to the Patriots O-line could see them struggle against Robert Ayers, Von Miller and company on the Broncos D-line.
The X factor for the Patriots is really how good Brady is. Even if Tebow can get the Broncos passing game going, you still have to score more than Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, who - despite heavy Broncos pressure - should be able to find some connections for big gains? Surely?
See I don't know. My gut instinct is telling me to take the Patriots, but then my gut instinct told me to take the Steelers last week. I don't think the Josh McDaniel move to the Patriots will have much of an effect, because the Broncos offense with Tebow at the helm isn't the same offense that McDaniels ran with Kyle Orton as his chosen guy.
This is the thing with Tebow. Every time he walks out there you say to yourself "he can't possibly win this one. He can't possibly beat this team. He can't possibly come back from this deficit... can he?"
And sure enough, he does, time after time. Right no there is no such thing as ruling this Broncos team out of a game, because time after time the defense comes up huge just at the right moment, Tebow starts rolling on offense and before you know it, boom, they're back on top.
So with some degree of hesitation and accepting this is very much a punt, I'm going to take the Broncos.
Onto Houston @ Baltimore and again we have a game which people seem to think is very clear cut but I wouldn't be so sure about. Baltimore - on its day - should trash Houston who are minus Matt Schaub still. The question is which Baltimore are we going to get? The one that hunkers down on defense and doesn't let anybody past? That runs the ball just about as good as anyone in the league? That hits a couple of deep shots and then unloads on the opponent as they try to fight back?
Or are we going to get the Ravens that struggle to move the ball on offense, with Flacco getting picked off multiple times, and coupled with a defense that fails to show the stoutness and toughness, especially against the run, that the Ravens defense has been famous for over the last few years.
That's before we get onto the Texans having a say in the matter. They have Andre Johnson in healthy shape, the have Arian Foster in healthy shape, the defense is fully fit and raring to go. Even without the experience of Schaub the Texans are still a force to be reckoned with.
And that's why I quite fancy the Texans fairy tale season (sort of) to continue. They did really well against a Bengals team that was expected to shut them down and they brought a solid helping of their own defense to the game to boot. Given then the propensity of the Ravens to collapse in games where they struggle early, I think the Texans have a great shot at making their first ever AFC Championship game. I'm taking the Texans.
Onto the NFC and we'll start with the Giants travelling to Green Bay to face the Packers. At this point I would just like to say that as much as I've enjoyed watching the Giants this season, surely this has to be the end of the road. Beating down Atlanta is one thing. Beating down Green Bay?
I can't see it myself. The Packers pass rush has really failed to ignite this year, but a slightly suspect Giants O-line could be the remedy for that particular ill. More to the point, despite the Giants pass rush being matched up against a still poor Packers O-line, I can't imagine the Giants will have much luck slowing down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers receivers.
Even when Matt Flynn came in the Packers offense still lit it up against Detroit. They're just hot right now and frankly the Giants secondary doesn't have the broad level of talent needed to keep up with so many weapons. For that reason I - like most of the world - will be taking the Packers.
Finally then we have the Saints travelling out West to face my very own 49ers at Candlestick Park. It just feels odd knowing that the 49ers are going to be hosting a play off game once again. I'm getting all nostalgic!
I'm not sure quite how long that will last though. As has been pointed out to death in the media this week, this is the battle of old school versus new school; a tough defense backed by a solid if unspectacular running game, up against a high octane, pass orientated offense with an aggressive but sometimes vulnerable defense.
A lot of this game will be decided by the 49ers D-line versus the Saints O-line. Drew Brees has to key advantages over a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL right now; 1) he has more time than most thanks to a very impressive line (three pro bowlers) and 2) he has a great running game on board that sets up some great play-action opportunities.
And right there is why the the 49ers D-line will be so pivotal. They have a great reputation against the run this year, the sort of reputation the Ravens and Steelers would love to have back. So just how effective is the Saints play action game going to be? Can they really get the safeties to bite down hard knowing that the D-line and linebackers have done so well this year and snuffing out other teams rushing attacks?
Then you have the pass rush, that's been pretty effective this year at getting round the O-line and putting quarterbacks on their butts. Aldon Smith, Justin Smith, Ahmad Brooks and so on have had a great collective year that could ruin the Saints season.
Alright, so it's still asking a lot of Alex Smith to try and keep up with the Drew Brees, but the Saints defense is there for the taking I think. The running game has been quite strong for the 49ers and I just genuinely - fan boy hat put to one side for the moment - think that the 49ers could nudge this, especially given the home field edge.
That's why I'm crossing my fingers and hoping perhaps a little beyond all hope that this year could be the one to put the 49ers back on the map. So... 49ers win.
I'll probably be back after the weekends action for a recap and hopefully stick an article of interest into next week. See you then.
Starting in the AFC with the Broncos travelling to the Patriots. Personally I don't think any of this weeks games are going to be easy to pick, but I've been struggling in particular with this one. The reason I say that is because the Broncos actually have more of a shot in this than many would think. The Patriots secondary is nowhere near the level of the Steelers and yet the Steelers found themselves routinely getting burned deep. The Steelers had a better pass rush than the Patriots are likely to produce, and injuries to the Patriots O-line could see them struggle against Robert Ayers, Von Miller and company on the Broncos D-line.
The X factor for the Patriots is really how good Brady is. Even if Tebow can get the Broncos passing game going, you still have to score more than Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, who - despite heavy Broncos pressure - should be able to find some connections for big gains? Surely?
See I don't know. My gut instinct is telling me to take the Patriots, but then my gut instinct told me to take the Steelers last week. I don't think the Josh McDaniel move to the Patriots will have much of an effect, because the Broncos offense with Tebow at the helm isn't the same offense that McDaniels ran with Kyle Orton as his chosen guy.
This is the thing with Tebow. Every time he walks out there you say to yourself "he can't possibly win this one. He can't possibly beat this team. He can't possibly come back from this deficit... can he?"
And sure enough, he does, time after time. Right no there is no such thing as ruling this Broncos team out of a game, because time after time the defense comes up huge just at the right moment, Tebow starts rolling on offense and before you know it, boom, they're back on top.
So with some degree of hesitation and accepting this is very much a punt, I'm going to take the Broncos.
Onto Houston @ Baltimore and again we have a game which people seem to think is very clear cut but I wouldn't be so sure about. Baltimore - on its day - should trash Houston who are minus Matt Schaub still. The question is which Baltimore are we going to get? The one that hunkers down on defense and doesn't let anybody past? That runs the ball just about as good as anyone in the league? That hits a couple of deep shots and then unloads on the opponent as they try to fight back?
Or are we going to get the Ravens that struggle to move the ball on offense, with Flacco getting picked off multiple times, and coupled with a defense that fails to show the stoutness and toughness, especially against the run, that the Ravens defense has been famous for over the last few years.
That's before we get onto the Texans having a say in the matter. They have Andre Johnson in healthy shape, the have Arian Foster in healthy shape, the defense is fully fit and raring to go. Even without the experience of Schaub the Texans are still a force to be reckoned with.
And that's why I quite fancy the Texans fairy tale season (sort of) to continue. They did really well against a Bengals team that was expected to shut them down and they brought a solid helping of their own defense to the game to boot. Given then the propensity of the Ravens to collapse in games where they struggle early, I think the Texans have a great shot at making their first ever AFC Championship game. I'm taking the Texans.
Onto the NFC and we'll start with the Giants travelling to Green Bay to face the Packers. At this point I would just like to say that as much as I've enjoyed watching the Giants this season, surely this has to be the end of the road. Beating down Atlanta is one thing. Beating down Green Bay?
I can't see it myself. The Packers pass rush has really failed to ignite this year, but a slightly suspect Giants O-line could be the remedy for that particular ill. More to the point, despite the Giants pass rush being matched up against a still poor Packers O-line, I can't imagine the Giants will have much luck slowing down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers receivers.
Even when Matt Flynn came in the Packers offense still lit it up against Detroit. They're just hot right now and frankly the Giants secondary doesn't have the broad level of talent needed to keep up with so many weapons. For that reason I - like most of the world - will be taking the Packers.
Finally then we have the Saints travelling out West to face my very own 49ers at Candlestick Park. It just feels odd knowing that the 49ers are going to be hosting a play off game once again. I'm getting all nostalgic!
I'm not sure quite how long that will last though. As has been pointed out to death in the media this week, this is the battle of old school versus new school; a tough defense backed by a solid if unspectacular running game, up against a high octane, pass orientated offense with an aggressive but sometimes vulnerable defense.
A lot of this game will be decided by the 49ers D-line versus the Saints O-line. Drew Brees has to key advantages over a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL right now; 1) he has more time than most thanks to a very impressive line (three pro bowlers) and 2) he has a great running game on board that sets up some great play-action opportunities.
And right there is why the the 49ers D-line will be so pivotal. They have a great reputation against the run this year, the sort of reputation the Ravens and Steelers would love to have back. So just how effective is the Saints play action game going to be? Can they really get the safeties to bite down hard knowing that the D-line and linebackers have done so well this year and snuffing out other teams rushing attacks?
Then you have the pass rush, that's been pretty effective this year at getting round the O-line and putting quarterbacks on their butts. Aldon Smith, Justin Smith, Ahmad Brooks and so on have had a great collective year that could ruin the Saints season.
Alright, so it's still asking a lot of Alex Smith to try and keep up with the Drew Brees, but the Saints defense is there for the taking I think. The running game has been quite strong for the 49ers and I just genuinely - fan boy hat put to one side for the moment - think that the 49ers could nudge this, especially given the home field edge.
That's why I'm crossing my fingers and hoping perhaps a little beyond all hope that this year could be the one to put the 49ers back on the map. So... 49ers win.
I'll probably be back after the weekends action for a recap and hopefully stick an article of interest into next week. See you then.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Wildcard Round Up
I do not believe it. Just.... it's a miracle ;)
We'll get to that later, but to start with the Texans beat the Bengals and I have to say that was an impressive performance all around for the Texans. The defense was solid, made some great plays at times, and generally disrupted the Bengals play through virtue of being efficient and organised. Poor Andy Dalton was always going to struggle, but I felt like he at least gave it a good crack, and I think the Bengals will be pleased with the year he's had and will come back next season with optimism in their eyes.
For the Texans, the combination of Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels and Arian Foster got the job done. Johnson and Daniels made some great catches, while Fosters hard running was impressive against a Bengals defense that has normally been quite good against the run. Whether this combination of weapons is on the same level as people like the Packers, Patriots and Saints is another matter, but they at least look they have a punchers chance in any match up. Very good.
I guess we'll stick with the AFC side of the play offs and address the Broncos win over the Steelers.
From the very first kick of the game you knew this was going to be a little bit special. Matt Praters kickoff struck the crossbar - causing an automatic touchback to the 20 yard line - then bounced back into the field of play, rolled a few yards and came to rest on the 20, saving the refs a job. It only got weirder.
Despite being probably one of the biggest Tebow supporters/sympathisers, I had the Steelers in this one. I just couldn't see the Broncos making it through this one unscathed. How wrong I was. To be fair to the Steelers they had plenty of injury worries. Roethlisberger was limping like Long John Silver, Maurkice Pouncey was out, Ryan Clark was out, Brett Keisel had to leave the game and Casey Hampton was gone to. Those last two injuries showed up huge in the amount of time that Tebow had in the pocket on occasion.
But you play the hand you're dealt and the Broncos played it beautifully. Traditionally the Steelers are a zone blitz team, rushing guys from odd angles while dropping other out in zone coverages. This time they sensed a weakness in Tebow's passing and came out with a lot of man coverage, getting burned repeatedly in the process as their corners failed to match up well, particularly Ike Taylor trying to cover DeMariyus Thomas.
Tebow only completed 10 of his 21 passes, but 316 yards and 2 touchdowns made that completion percentage irrelevant. The Broncos receivers actually made some catches for a change, although there were still a few that clipped fingers and slipped through hands.
Thomas in particular took center stage, catching just four passes but for 204 yards and a touchdown. It was his final catch - an 80 yard romp in over time - that sealed the game. Tebow time indeed.
I also just want to quickly pick on the situation with James Harrison. A lot of people have been calling Harrison "dirty" for his low shot on Eric Decker - who left the game with a knee injury and didn't return - but this was always going to be the inevitable result of the rule changes regarding helmet to helmet hits, especially considering the fines levied on Harrison.
This is what people we're trying to warn the league about. If you want to stop high hits that's fine, but the end result is always going to be that guys start going for the legs and eventually someone gets a knee blown out. And whereas concussions are nasty and the immediate effects can be felt for weeks (in some cases), with the long term effect of repeated hit still being investigated, knee hits are always going to result in lengthy injury spells. More to the point, serious knee injuries effect a players career in ways that a concussion just doesn't. It's why a lot of players have admitted that they would rather take a shot to the head than a shot to the knee.
So no, I don't blame Harrison. This is what the league wanted. They repeatedly fined him for lowering his head, the implication being that they wanted him to go low, so low is exactly where he went. And boom, we have a guy getting seriously injured. You reap what you sow, as they say.
I also want to mention the Broncos defense, as once again their part in all of this has been lost under the mountain of Tebowmania articles. They had fives sacks between them, a pick, a near pick in the endzone by Champ Bailey, and a forced fumble. When the Steelers got the ball back with a little over a minute remaining in the game, it was the Broncos defense that came up big to shut them down and stop them getting the field goal.
I guess the Broncos D are used to it by now, but it still must irk a little that they don't get the credit they deserve. While magazine covers and blog home pages are splattered with pictures of Tebow, the Broncos defense has once again been pushed to the back. They need to get the credit that they deserve for playing their part in this win.
That means now that the Texans will travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens, while the Broncos visit New England who have since hired former Broncos Head Coach Josh McDaniels, the guy that drafted Tebow and Thomas in the first round of the same draft. How smug that guy must feel right now.
Onto the NFC and we start with the Saints win over the Lions.
Just... wow.
I could leave it there and that would be an accurate summation of the Saints performance. They nailed it. Up until the fourth quarter there was still hope for the Lions, but then it all went down the drain, flushed away by a startling offensive performance from the Saints that demonstrated balance and explosiveness. I don't think I've ever been as impressed with the Saints as I am now.
Drew Brees was 33/43, a better than 75% completion percentage despite throwing the ball 43 times. That's incredible. The ground game was just as good, running hard for solid gains and three scores. All around they were just too good for the Lions.
And that's been the Lions problem this year. Offensively they can swing and hit with the best of them. But their defense has just been a soft touch. Matthew Stafford had another game going over 350 yards (exactly 380), but the defense was porous, giving up 34 first downs and 626 total net yards. That doesn't cut it in the regular season, let alone the play offs.
I'm pleased about this not just because I got the pick right, but because of how many people picked the Lions, and the general chatter around the league and the web that the Lions are a top caliber team on the same level as the Saints. They're not. Offensively they can go, providing Calvin Johnson can get open. But they still struggle on the defense and unless they have a great free agency/draft, I think they're going to struggle next year.
It's a shame. I felt like Detroit was a team that was going places and could have made a big push this year if they could have just tightened up the linebacker spots and the secondary a little. There are some red hot linebackers and secondary guys in this years draft, so if the Lions are ever going to pounce then now is the time. I think Lavonte David of Nebraska is in it this year, and if that's the case then I can't see them passing up a playmaker like that.
Finally then we have the Giants win over the Falcons.
In the end what was expected to be a tight battle turned into a massacre. The Falcons scored two points because of a safety and that was it. The Giants didn't exactly run up the score but they smothered the Falcons in impressive fashion.
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw put on another good show. Neither of them passed 100 yards, but Jacobs came close off just 14 carries. Eli Manning didn't turn the ball over for a change and his receivers looked pretty sharp, running some great routes from a technique perspective.
The Falcons only have themselves to blame for their loss. Matt Ryan barely completed 50% of his passes and they missed some key fourth downs with just inches to go as Ryan struggled to make gains behind an offensive line that was simply blown off the football at every turn by the Giants D-line. It wasn't pretty and it means Tony Gonzalez ends another year without a play off win. Poor guy.
Due to that result the Giants now have to travel to Green Bay and the Saints are off to San Francisco for the weekend. I think that's two interesting match ups right there, especially the Saints/49ers, as we get to see a 21st Century team (explosive offense, shaky defense) against what is essentially a 20th Century team (low scoring offense, very stout defense).
Let the Divisional Round battles begin!
We'll get to that later, but to start with the Texans beat the Bengals and I have to say that was an impressive performance all around for the Texans. The defense was solid, made some great plays at times, and generally disrupted the Bengals play through virtue of being efficient and organised. Poor Andy Dalton was always going to struggle, but I felt like he at least gave it a good crack, and I think the Bengals will be pleased with the year he's had and will come back next season with optimism in their eyes.
For the Texans, the combination of Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels and Arian Foster got the job done. Johnson and Daniels made some great catches, while Fosters hard running was impressive against a Bengals defense that has normally been quite good against the run. Whether this combination of weapons is on the same level as people like the Packers, Patriots and Saints is another matter, but they at least look they have a punchers chance in any match up. Very good.
I guess we'll stick with the AFC side of the play offs and address the Broncos win over the Steelers.
From the very first kick of the game you knew this was going to be a little bit special. Matt Praters kickoff struck the crossbar - causing an automatic touchback to the 20 yard line - then bounced back into the field of play, rolled a few yards and came to rest on the 20, saving the refs a job. It only got weirder.
Despite being probably one of the biggest Tebow supporters/sympathisers, I had the Steelers in this one. I just couldn't see the Broncos making it through this one unscathed. How wrong I was. To be fair to the Steelers they had plenty of injury worries. Roethlisberger was limping like Long John Silver, Maurkice Pouncey was out, Ryan Clark was out, Brett Keisel had to leave the game and Casey Hampton was gone to. Those last two injuries showed up huge in the amount of time that Tebow had in the pocket on occasion.
But you play the hand you're dealt and the Broncos played it beautifully. Traditionally the Steelers are a zone blitz team, rushing guys from odd angles while dropping other out in zone coverages. This time they sensed a weakness in Tebow's passing and came out with a lot of man coverage, getting burned repeatedly in the process as their corners failed to match up well, particularly Ike Taylor trying to cover DeMariyus Thomas.
Tebow only completed 10 of his 21 passes, but 316 yards and 2 touchdowns made that completion percentage irrelevant. The Broncos receivers actually made some catches for a change, although there were still a few that clipped fingers and slipped through hands.
Thomas in particular took center stage, catching just four passes but for 204 yards and a touchdown. It was his final catch - an 80 yard romp in over time - that sealed the game. Tebow time indeed.
I also just want to quickly pick on the situation with James Harrison. A lot of people have been calling Harrison "dirty" for his low shot on Eric Decker - who left the game with a knee injury and didn't return - but this was always going to be the inevitable result of the rule changes regarding helmet to helmet hits, especially considering the fines levied on Harrison.
This is what people we're trying to warn the league about. If you want to stop high hits that's fine, but the end result is always going to be that guys start going for the legs and eventually someone gets a knee blown out. And whereas concussions are nasty and the immediate effects can be felt for weeks (in some cases), with the long term effect of repeated hit still being investigated, knee hits are always going to result in lengthy injury spells. More to the point, serious knee injuries effect a players career in ways that a concussion just doesn't. It's why a lot of players have admitted that they would rather take a shot to the head than a shot to the knee.
So no, I don't blame Harrison. This is what the league wanted. They repeatedly fined him for lowering his head, the implication being that they wanted him to go low, so low is exactly where he went. And boom, we have a guy getting seriously injured. You reap what you sow, as they say.
I also want to mention the Broncos defense, as once again their part in all of this has been lost under the mountain of Tebowmania articles. They had fives sacks between them, a pick, a near pick in the endzone by Champ Bailey, and a forced fumble. When the Steelers got the ball back with a little over a minute remaining in the game, it was the Broncos defense that came up big to shut them down and stop them getting the field goal.
I guess the Broncos D are used to it by now, but it still must irk a little that they don't get the credit they deserve. While magazine covers and blog home pages are splattered with pictures of Tebow, the Broncos defense has once again been pushed to the back. They need to get the credit that they deserve for playing their part in this win.
That means now that the Texans will travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens, while the Broncos visit New England who have since hired former Broncos Head Coach Josh McDaniels, the guy that drafted Tebow and Thomas in the first round of the same draft. How smug that guy must feel right now.
Onto the NFC and we start with the Saints win over the Lions.
Just... wow.
I could leave it there and that would be an accurate summation of the Saints performance. They nailed it. Up until the fourth quarter there was still hope for the Lions, but then it all went down the drain, flushed away by a startling offensive performance from the Saints that demonstrated balance and explosiveness. I don't think I've ever been as impressed with the Saints as I am now.
Drew Brees was 33/43, a better than 75% completion percentage despite throwing the ball 43 times. That's incredible. The ground game was just as good, running hard for solid gains and three scores. All around they were just too good for the Lions.
And that's been the Lions problem this year. Offensively they can swing and hit with the best of them. But their defense has just been a soft touch. Matthew Stafford had another game going over 350 yards (exactly 380), but the defense was porous, giving up 34 first downs and 626 total net yards. That doesn't cut it in the regular season, let alone the play offs.
I'm pleased about this not just because I got the pick right, but because of how many people picked the Lions, and the general chatter around the league and the web that the Lions are a top caliber team on the same level as the Saints. They're not. Offensively they can go, providing Calvin Johnson can get open. But they still struggle on the defense and unless they have a great free agency/draft, I think they're going to struggle next year.
It's a shame. I felt like Detroit was a team that was going places and could have made a big push this year if they could have just tightened up the linebacker spots and the secondary a little. There are some red hot linebackers and secondary guys in this years draft, so if the Lions are ever going to pounce then now is the time. I think Lavonte David of Nebraska is in it this year, and if that's the case then I can't see them passing up a playmaker like that.
Finally then we have the Giants win over the Falcons.
In the end what was expected to be a tight battle turned into a massacre. The Falcons scored two points because of a safety and that was it. The Giants didn't exactly run up the score but they smothered the Falcons in impressive fashion.
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw put on another good show. Neither of them passed 100 yards, but Jacobs came close off just 14 carries. Eli Manning didn't turn the ball over for a change and his receivers looked pretty sharp, running some great routes from a technique perspective.
The Falcons only have themselves to blame for their loss. Matt Ryan barely completed 50% of his passes and they missed some key fourth downs with just inches to go as Ryan struggled to make gains behind an offensive line that was simply blown off the football at every turn by the Giants D-line. It wasn't pretty and it means Tony Gonzalez ends another year without a play off win. Poor guy.
Due to that result the Giants now have to travel to Green Bay and the Saints are off to San Francisco for the weekend. I think that's two interesting match ups right there, especially the Saints/49ers, as we get to see a 21st Century team (explosive offense, shaky defense) against what is essentially a 20th Century team (low scoring offense, very stout defense).
Let the Divisional Round battles begin!
Saturday, January 07, 2012
Wildcard Picks
With the Wildcard round looming, it's time to pick 'em.
Texans over Bengals - The Texans make the play offs for the first time in franchise history... and I think they go on to the Divisional round. The Bengals are pretty handy but the Texans do have an ace up their sleeve; the return of Andre Johnson. Whether he'll be fully healthy or not is a big question. If he is, then that will help Yates at quarterback. The Texans also have a slightly stronger running game and a more well rounded defense, especially when injuries to the Bengals are considered.
Steelers over Broncos - As much as I like Tebow and wish him well, I can't seem them beating the Steelers. Too many drops and a defense that, while good, is probably not enough to contain the Steelers offense. There are rumours that the Broncos have specific packages lined up for Brady Quinn, so good luck with that. I don't see it making much of a difference. Of course what will be hilarious is if the Broncos receivers pull another stinker, even when Quinn is in, and then all of a sudden the expert opinions have a retrospective revelation about what went wrong.
Giants over Falcons - I cannot believe I just typed that. The Giants look suspect as hell at times. They have it within themselves to win this game, but they also have it within themselves to piss this one up the wall. On balance though they probably have the stronger team and have lived through a tougher schedule than the Falcons to get here. That, coupled with a tough win last Sunday, and a dash of Victor Cruz magic, could see them through here.
Saints over Lions - Without a hesitation. If I had to pick an NFC team that I felt didn't deserve to be in the play offs then it would be the Lions. They scraped and slipped and fallen over themselves yet somehow managed to back into the play offs by God only knows what means. I see it ending here with a brutal lesson in what play off football really looks like, as administered by the Saints. For once I will actually be happy to see New Orleans win.
Texans over Bengals - The Texans make the play offs for the first time in franchise history... and I think they go on to the Divisional round. The Bengals are pretty handy but the Texans do have an ace up their sleeve; the return of Andre Johnson. Whether he'll be fully healthy or not is a big question. If he is, then that will help Yates at quarterback. The Texans also have a slightly stronger running game and a more well rounded defense, especially when injuries to the Bengals are considered.
Steelers over Broncos - As much as I like Tebow and wish him well, I can't seem them beating the Steelers. Too many drops and a defense that, while good, is probably not enough to contain the Steelers offense. There are rumours that the Broncos have specific packages lined up for Brady Quinn, so good luck with that. I don't see it making much of a difference. Of course what will be hilarious is if the Broncos receivers pull another stinker, even when Quinn is in, and then all of a sudden the expert opinions have a retrospective revelation about what went wrong.
Giants over Falcons - I cannot believe I just typed that. The Giants look suspect as hell at times. They have it within themselves to win this game, but they also have it within themselves to piss this one up the wall. On balance though they probably have the stronger team and have lived through a tougher schedule than the Falcons to get here. That, coupled with a tough win last Sunday, and a dash of Victor Cruz magic, could see them through here.
Saints over Lions - Without a hesitation. If I had to pick an NFC team that I felt didn't deserve to be in the play offs then it would be the Lions. They scraped and slipped and fallen over themselves yet somehow managed to back into the play offs by God only knows what means. I see it ending here with a brutal lesson in what play off football really looks like, as administered by the Saints. For once I will actually be happy to see New Orleans win.
Friday, January 06, 2012
Another Tim Tebow rant. Sort of.
So Week 17 is done and with it the regular season. Booo! Why does football have to end so quickly? (He says, after four months of weekly football, with another month and a bit to go). I know this is a bit late, but honestly I spent Sunday watching football from beneath a blanket with a wet towel over my head, and strong cup of coffee after strong cup of coffee sitting beside me after suffering the worst hangover in the history of hangovers, then spending the next three days essentially recovering. But I digress.
I have to start in Denver who - despite losing to the Chiefs - will still make it to the playoffs on account of the Raiders also losing. The fact that the Steelers now have to travel to Denver is pretty funny, but that's what you get for not winning your division.
In a nutshell, the Broncos were chronic. Tebow is taking a ton of flack for throwing I think it was 6/20 for 84 yards or something like that (too lazy to check) and to a degree, yes, yes that was bad. But what's worse is two things; 1) the Broncos receiving corps and 2) the mainstream press.
Just watch a Broncos game for me. As a former receivers coach it is, for me at least, a f**king horror show of epic proportions. Tebow deserves some of the blame, but the receivers in Denver getting off completely free out of all this is just wrong. Eddie Royal couldn't catch a damn cold right now and Demariyus Thomas is having an incredibly disappointing season (/career). No way should they be skirting under the radar and not taking their fair share of the blame.
We all know why this is. The simple fact is that when you write an article with "Tim Tebow" in the title, then page views will follow (hehehe). More to the point, if you write "Tim Tebow Sucks", you're guaranteed to double your traffic at the very least. It gets peoples attention because it's a populist statement that fits in with peoples pre-conceived bias.
The truth is that there are a lot of people out there who don't have the first f**king clue what they're talking about who will happily sit down and say "Tebow can never make it as a QB in the NFL. Maybe as a TE or RB, but not a QB", without either; a) considering what an NFL quarterback is or should be and b) understanding that just because you're big and can run from the pocket against a retreating defense, doesn't automatically make you a running back or a tight end, let alone an NFL running back or tight end.
And so anti-Tebow headlines followed by anti-Tebow articles tell people the kind of things they want to hear. Inconvenient subjects like the truth fall by the way side in favour of trash journalism that panders to public opinion, instead of doing what journalism should do and that's challenge peoples perceptions and make them think hard about the chosen subject.
It's like the whole throwing motion argument all over again.
When Tebow was drafted people were flipping their s**t that Tebow had a poor throwing motion and that a motion like that could never survive in the NFL. Indeed, it was suggested that Tebow should alter his motion, perhaps by emulating someone like Dan Marino. Of course I wrote a post on this subject at the time, pointing out the fact that Dan Marino probably had just as much of a looping motion as Tebow does, but being an extremely small fish in a bloody great ocean that post will have missed about 99.999999999% (add more nines as appropriate) of all football fans.
The reality of Tim Tebow's NFL career can, I think, be summed up in one video;
That's the story of Tebow's time in the NFL so far; a pretty good quarterback, still learning the trade, who makes pretty good throws, only to get dumped on by his receivers, followed by the entire press corps and then the wider fan world after that.
Maybe I'm just being all "one man crusader" on this issue, thinking that you can change the world with one blog post, but it just drives me nuts that this issue isn't brought to peoples attention more, and that a seemingly decent young man is having his reputation and career jeopardised by bias media coverage that is only interested on cooking up the juiciest, dirtiest, most lurid stories that it can.
I'm not saying Tebow is perfect, he'll need to work his butt off in the off season to get better, but he does deserve some slack I feel. The only decent post I've seen anywhere on the Internet about this subject can be found here, at the DenverPost.com by Woody Paige, a man who has seen all of Tebow's games and watched him through training camp. I think Paige's analysis is pretty spot on.
He also threw up an interesting point about the influence on a quarterbacks play with who he's throwing to. This is a subject I've been wrestling with mentally for a while now because I'm starting to be convinced by a very weird train of thought; that quarterbacks aren't as important as the wide receivers.
Not irrelevant. That's not what I'm saying. Just look at the difference in Indianapolis between Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky (perhaps with the exception of Orlovsky's stinker on Sunday). But it does seem that when you follow the trail of good quarterbacks often you find excellent receivers walking side by side with them.
Matthew Stafford has had a great year in Detroit for example, but a lot of that is to do with Calvin Johnson. Look no further than Sunday for a great example. Not just on the Lions side of the ball either, but on the opposite side as well. Matt Flynn, the backup quarterback who hasn't play a down this year that I can remember, walks in and hits six touchdown passes.
Now either one of two things has happened there. Number one is that Matt Flynn is the most unbelievable backup quarterback in the history of the NFL and can even top Aaron Rodgers. Or number two, the Packers offense is just that good and that it really doesn't matter who's throwing the ball because the receivers are getting open and their run after the catch ability is just pretty good.
Let's put it this way; I have a hard time believing that if it is all about the quarterback, that Matt Flynn can then just walk off the bench after his first week of practising with the first team in what, four months? Five Months? And just kick butt like all he and Rodgers had done was swap jeresey's.
Look at some of the numbers from the game as well. Calvin Johnson had nearly 250 yards for the Lions. Brandon Pettigrew had over 100. That's 350 of Stafford's 500 yards right there. For the Packers you had Jordy Nelson who picked up something like 160 odd yards just by himself.
Pausing from this train of thought for a moment, the Packers badly need to find another pass rusher to play opposite Matthews for next year. For a while there it looked like we might see a repeat of the Packers/Cardinals playoff game from a few years back. Green Bay really looks dodgy in shoot outs and while this one ended all smiles, too often it ends in tears.
Anyway, back on track. Another great example of the phenomenon involving quarterback and receiver partnerships is Carolina where Steve Smith has been a huge reason for Cam Newton's success as a passer. If I had a buck for every time that Steve Smith had made a great catch on a dubious looking pass by Newton, I wouldn't need to write this blog in order to try and generate a second income.
And while we're dwelling on the Panthers/Saints game, can I just say how f**king dumb I feel right now for picking the Panthers over the Saints. I completely forgot that the Saints had a chance to clinch a bye if they won and the 49ers lost. It didn't even occur to me when making the pick. I had images of Drew Brees putting his feet up for a week ahead of the play offs.
As it turned out he played and put up another huge day, mostly through Colston and tight end Jimmy Graham. Congratulations as well to Graham for breaking the single season receiving yardage record (or was it receptions?) for a tight end, and also to Darren Sproles for breaking the single season all purpose yardage record. That offense has been white hot this year.
Back on track and even Brady has Welker, Gronkowski and Gonzalez, the later two of whom both went over 100 yards against the Bills.
Eli Manning is another good example. Alright, hands up straight away that I've never been a huge fan of Eli Manning, but you only have to watch some of the throws that he makes and then some of the catches that guys like Victor Cruz make to see where I'm coming from with this. Cruz finished that game with over 170 something yards, many of which he picked up with his feet. He made some great grabs on badly thrown passes and that's really the thrust of where I'm going with this.
For those who don't know, you're just going to have to trust me on this one, but a lot of those deep passes that you see quarterbacks make are not the picture perfect bombs onto a dime that commentators (and quarterbacks coaches) would have you believe. In most cases it's the receivers who make adjustments - however subtle - underneath the pass that makes it what it is.
You often hear things like "... and the quarterback put that one right on the money!". What the commentator should be saying is "... and that one was just a touch under thrown, but the receiver shortened his stride just a little at the end there and made the catch!".
Now it works both ways. Often you'll see what appears to be an over thrown pass that makes the quarterback look bad, when in some cases that's actually the receiver just misjudging the flight of the ball and slowing down a little too much. Then there's guys like Braylon Edwards, who can't seem to remove his gloves from his face mask when trying to catch passes over his shoulder.
Again I need to reiterate that I'm not saying quarterbacks are mere bystanders. Blaine Gabbert is a fine example of what happens when a quarterback can't stand up in the pocket against the pass rush and has almost zero accuracy beyond about 10 yards.
It's just that the more that I think about it, the more a quality receiver(s) seems to play a part in the best offenses.
I wonder how successful Andy Dalton would be in Cincinnati without A.J. Green, or how successful Matt Moore would be in Miami without Brandon Marshall? An intriguing question and one I intend to keep an eye on in future.
Thanks for stopping by to read. I had planned to do a better recap and not just rant, but sometimes a blogger has to do what a blogger has to do, like begging people to share the link with as many others as they can. ;)
I have to start in Denver who - despite losing to the Chiefs - will still make it to the playoffs on account of the Raiders also losing. The fact that the Steelers now have to travel to Denver is pretty funny, but that's what you get for not winning your division.
In a nutshell, the Broncos were chronic. Tebow is taking a ton of flack for throwing I think it was 6/20 for 84 yards or something like that (too lazy to check) and to a degree, yes, yes that was bad. But what's worse is two things; 1) the Broncos receiving corps and 2) the mainstream press.
Just watch a Broncos game for me. As a former receivers coach it is, for me at least, a f**king horror show of epic proportions. Tebow deserves some of the blame, but the receivers in Denver getting off completely free out of all this is just wrong. Eddie Royal couldn't catch a damn cold right now and Demariyus Thomas is having an incredibly disappointing season (/career). No way should they be skirting under the radar and not taking their fair share of the blame.
We all know why this is. The simple fact is that when you write an article with "Tim Tebow" in the title, then page views will follow (hehehe). More to the point, if you write "Tim Tebow Sucks", you're guaranteed to double your traffic at the very least. It gets peoples attention because it's a populist statement that fits in with peoples pre-conceived bias.
The truth is that there are a lot of people out there who don't have the first f**king clue what they're talking about who will happily sit down and say "Tebow can never make it as a QB in the NFL. Maybe as a TE or RB, but not a QB", without either; a) considering what an NFL quarterback is or should be and b) understanding that just because you're big and can run from the pocket against a retreating defense, doesn't automatically make you a running back or a tight end, let alone an NFL running back or tight end.
And so anti-Tebow headlines followed by anti-Tebow articles tell people the kind of things they want to hear. Inconvenient subjects like the truth fall by the way side in favour of trash journalism that panders to public opinion, instead of doing what journalism should do and that's challenge peoples perceptions and make them think hard about the chosen subject.
It's like the whole throwing motion argument all over again.
When Tebow was drafted people were flipping their s**t that Tebow had a poor throwing motion and that a motion like that could never survive in the NFL. Indeed, it was suggested that Tebow should alter his motion, perhaps by emulating someone like Dan Marino. Of course I wrote a post on this subject at the time, pointing out the fact that Dan Marino probably had just as much of a looping motion as Tebow does, but being an extremely small fish in a bloody great ocean that post will have missed about 99.999999999% (add more nines as appropriate) of all football fans.
The reality of Tim Tebow's NFL career can, I think, be summed up in one video;
That's the story of Tebow's time in the NFL so far; a pretty good quarterback, still learning the trade, who makes pretty good throws, only to get dumped on by his receivers, followed by the entire press corps and then the wider fan world after that.
Maybe I'm just being all "one man crusader" on this issue, thinking that you can change the world with one blog post, but it just drives me nuts that this issue isn't brought to peoples attention more, and that a seemingly decent young man is having his reputation and career jeopardised by bias media coverage that is only interested on cooking up the juiciest, dirtiest, most lurid stories that it can.
I'm not saying Tebow is perfect, he'll need to work his butt off in the off season to get better, but he does deserve some slack I feel. The only decent post I've seen anywhere on the Internet about this subject can be found here, at the DenverPost.com by Woody Paige, a man who has seen all of Tebow's games and watched him through training camp. I think Paige's analysis is pretty spot on.
He also threw up an interesting point about the influence on a quarterbacks play with who he's throwing to. This is a subject I've been wrestling with mentally for a while now because I'm starting to be convinced by a very weird train of thought; that quarterbacks aren't as important as the wide receivers.
Not irrelevant. That's not what I'm saying. Just look at the difference in Indianapolis between Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky (perhaps with the exception of Orlovsky's stinker on Sunday). But it does seem that when you follow the trail of good quarterbacks often you find excellent receivers walking side by side with them.
Matthew Stafford has had a great year in Detroit for example, but a lot of that is to do with Calvin Johnson. Look no further than Sunday for a great example. Not just on the Lions side of the ball either, but on the opposite side as well. Matt Flynn, the backup quarterback who hasn't play a down this year that I can remember, walks in and hits six touchdown passes.
Now either one of two things has happened there. Number one is that Matt Flynn is the most unbelievable backup quarterback in the history of the NFL and can even top Aaron Rodgers. Or number two, the Packers offense is just that good and that it really doesn't matter who's throwing the ball because the receivers are getting open and their run after the catch ability is just pretty good.
Let's put it this way; I have a hard time believing that if it is all about the quarterback, that Matt Flynn can then just walk off the bench after his first week of practising with the first team in what, four months? Five Months? And just kick butt like all he and Rodgers had done was swap jeresey's.
Look at some of the numbers from the game as well. Calvin Johnson had nearly 250 yards for the Lions. Brandon Pettigrew had over 100. That's 350 of Stafford's 500 yards right there. For the Packers you had Jordy Nelson who picked up something like 160 odd yards just by himself.
Pausing from this train of thought for a moment, the Packers badly need to find another pass rusher to play opposite Matthews for next year. For a while there it looked like we might see a repeat of the Packers/Cardinals playoff game from a few years back. Green Bay really looks dodgy in shoot outs and while this one ended all smiles, too often it ends in tears.
Anyway, back on track. Another great example of the phenomenon involving quarterback and receiver partnerships is Carolina where Steve Smith has been a huge reason for Cam Newton's success as a passer. If I had a buck for every time that Steve Smith had made a great catch on a dubious looking pass by Newton, I wouldn't need to write this blog in order to try and generate a second income.
And while we're dwelling on the Panthers/Saints game, can I just say how f**king dumb I feel right now for picking the Panthers over the Saints. I completely forgot that the Saints had a chance to clinch a bye if they won and the 49ers lost. It didn't even occur to me when making the pick. I had images of Drew Brees putting his feet up for a week ahead of the play offs.
As it turned out he played and put up another huge day, mostly through Colston and tight end Jimmy Graham. Congratulations as well to Graham for breaking the single season receiving yardage record (or was it receptions?) for a tight end, and also to Darren Sproles for breaking the single season all purpose yardage record. That offense has been white hot this year.
Back on track and even Brady has Welker, Gronkowski and Gonzalez, the later two of whom both went over 100 yards against the Bills.
Eli Manning is another good example. Alright, hands up straight away that I've never been a huge fan of Eli Manning, but you only have to watch some of the throws that he makes and then some of the catches that guys like Victor Cruz make to see where I'm coming from with this. Cruz finished that game with over 170 something yards, many of which he picked up with his feet. He made some great grabs on badly thrown passes and that's really the thrust of where I'm going with this.
For those who don't know, you're just going to have to trust me on this one, but a lot of those deep passes that you see quarterbacks make are not the picture perfect bombs onto a dime that commentators (and quarterbacks coaches) would have you believe. In most cases it's the receivers who make adjustments - however subtle - underneath the pass that makes it what it is.
You often hear things like "... and the quarterback put that one right on the money!". What the commentator should be saying is "... and that one was just a touch under thrown, but the receiver shortened his stride just a little at the end there and made the catch!".
Now it works both ways. Often you'll see what appears to be an over thrown pass that makes the quarterback look bad, when in some cases that's actually the receiver just misjudging the flight of the ball and slowing down a little too much. Then there's guys like Braylon Edwards, who can't seem to remove his gloves from his face mask when trying to catch passes over his shoulder.
Again I need to reiterate that I'm not saying quarterbacks are mere bystanders. Blaine Gabbert is a fine example of what happens when a quarterback can't stand up in the pocket against the pass rush and has almost zero accuracy beyond about 10 yards.
It's just that the more that I think about it, the more a quality receiver(s) seems to play a part in the best offenses.
I wonder how successful Andy Dalton would be in Cincinnati without A.J. Green, or how successful Matt Moore would be in Miami without Brandon Marshall? An intriguing question and one I intend to keep an eye on in future.
Thanks for stopping by to read. I had planned to do a better recap and not just rant, but sometimes a blogger has to do what a blogger has to do, like begging people to share the link with as many others as they can. ;)
Thursday, January 05, 2012
Just a brief word...
... to say that I've now recovered fully from a weekend of excess and will be doing a combined recap of week 17 coupled with a look ahead to the wildcard round tomorrow.
For now, just a brief note that I ended 9-7 pick wise this week, after some weird games. More on that tomorrow. I finished the regular season then at 168-91, which beats all of the eight "NFL Expert Picks" at ESPN.
And I don't cost anywhere near as much to hire....
For now, just a brief note that I ended 9-7 pick wise this week, after some weird games. More on that tomorrow. I finished the regular season then at 168-91, which beats all of the eight "NFL Expert Picks" at ESPN.
And I don't cost anywhere near as much to hire....
Sunday, January 01, 2012
Week 17 picks
Nearly forgot.... Week 17 picks. Luckily this year all but about four of the games have something on the line. Usually Week 17 is a crap fest of the highest order and a perfect way to ruin a seasons pickings.
Packers over Lions.
Titans over Texans,
Colts over Jaguars,
Dolphins over Jets,
Vikings over Bears,
Patriots over Bills,
Panthers over Saints,
Eagles over Redskins,
49ers over Rams,
Seahawks over Cardinals,
Falcons over Buccaneers,
Bengals over Ravens,
Steelers over Browns,
Broncos over Chiefs,
Raiders over Chargers,
Giants over Cowboys,
Packers over Lions.
Titans over Texans,
Colts over Jaguars,
Dolphins over Jets,
Vikings over Bears,
Patriots over Bills,
Panthers over Saints,
Eagles over Redskins,
49ers over Rams,
Seahawks over Cardinals,
Falcons over Buccaneers,
Bengals over Ravens,
Steelers over Browns,
Broncos over Chiefs,
Raiders over Chargers,
Giants over Cowboys,
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